IMES Discussion Paper Series 2026
IMES Discussion Paper Series (DPS) is circulated in order to stimulate discussion and comments. Views expressed in Discussion Paper Series are those of authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Japan or the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies.
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| No./Main Category | Author(s) | Title/Keywords | Date | Full Text (PDF) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-E-7/Economics | Yusuke Oh, Mototsugu Shintani | Forecasting Recessions Using Machine Learning on Text Data and Mixed-Frequency Predictors
/business cycles; mixed data sampling; model confidence set; text analysis; recession forecasting |
Mar. 30, 2026 | [PDF 803KB] |
| 2026-E-6/Economics | Hiroyuki Oi, Shigenori Shiratsuka, Shunichi Yoneyama | Revisiting Shadow Short-term Interest Rate Models: Evidence from the Ultra-Low Interest Rate Environment in Japan
/Effective lower bound constraint; Shadow short-term interest rates; Nelson-Siegel model; Monetary policy indicators |
Mar. 30, 2026 | [PDF 3,065KB] |
| 2026-E-5/Economics | Hiroshi Inokuma | Computerization and the Educational Composition of Routine Work
/investment specific technological change; computerization; occupational choice; schooling choice |
Mar. 30, 2026 | [PDF 1,788KB] |
| 2026-E-4/Economics | Masayuki Okada | Decomposing Loan Rate Dispersion in the Interbank Market
/interbank loans; loan rate dispersion; AKM model; over-the-counter market; bank heterogeneity |
Mar. 23, 2026 | [PDF 4,884KB] |
| 2026-E-3/Finance | Satoko Kojima, Toshiyuki Sakiyama | Determinants of Liquidity in the Japanese Government Bond Market: An Interpretable Machine Learning Approach
/Market liquidity; Government bond markets; Bond features; Machine learning approach |
Mar. 10, 2026 | [PDF 773KB] |
| 2026-E-2/Economics | Wataru Hagio, Daisuke Ikeda, Koji Takahashi, Keisuke Yoshida | Mind the Gap When Exiting Low-for-Long
/Low-for-long interest rates; learning; neutral nominal rates; forward guidance; imperfect credibility |
Feb. 24, 2026 | [PDF 1,256KB] |
| 2026-E-1/Economics | Mitsuru Katagiri | Job Tenure Jigsaw: Why Is Employment Protection Bad for Labor Market Fluidity?
/Labor market fluidity; Human capital; Employment protection; Job tenure |
Feb. 12, 2026 | [PDF 659KB] |