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Revisions to the Research Data "Developments in Real Exports and Real Imports"

日本語

May 20, 2026
Research and Statistics Department
Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan's Research and Statistics Department compiles and releases the research data on the "Developments in Real Exports and Real Imports" page, which includes (1) data on Real exports and Real imports ("main series") and (2) estimated results for Real exports broken down by region and by goods ("reference series").

To accurately capture developments in real exports and real imports, changes will be made to the compilation method with the release of data for April 2026 (scheduled for later this month). The publication format and release schedule will also be changed as outlined below.

Revision to the Compilation Method

(1) Total Real Exports and Real Imports Compilation Revision

With regards to the "main series" of Real exports, to date, data has been compiled with the eight-group deflation method, which divides the nominal export value into eight groups based on the classifications in the "Trade Statistics," released by the Ministry of Finance, deflating each group using the corresponding deflator, and then aggregating. However, in recent years, fluctuations in the deflators for certain items have increased significantly, causing discrepancies to occur between (i) the values deflated based on the eight-group classification and (ii) those deflated based on a more detailed breakdown of 31 items, used for the current calculation of Real exports by goods in the "reference series."

In this context, going forward, for Real exports data since 2000, where the detailed principal commodity classification is available, Approach (ii), which uses the 31-item classification for deflation, will be adopted instead of Approach (i). Similarly, the compilation method for Real imports will also be revised, transitioning from the current aggregation of real values based on the eight commodity groups to deflation calculated using the 28-item classification1.

  1. 1Figures for data prior to 2000 will be retroactively revised using the month-on-month rate of change of the data compiled with the eight-group deflation method.

(2) Refinement of Deflators for Real Exports by Goods

The deflators used to calculate Real exports by goods and the above method of compilation have seen substantial fluctuations in recent times, particularly for specific items such as semiconductors (memory chips) and gold, where their indices have risen significantly relative to other deflators. These large variations in deflators have introduced non-negligible bias into the real export figures.

To address this issue, the correspondence between items and their respective deflators will be refined through this revision.

For detailed information on the revised correspondence between items and deflators used in the calculation of Real exports and Real imports, please refer to "Goods Classification in Real exports and Real imports [PDF 71KB]."

Changes to Publication Format and Schedule

In conjunction with the aforementioned revision of compilation method, the Bank of Japan's Research and Statistics Department will cease publishing the Real Export and Real Import series (Main Series, based on the eight commodity groups) on the same day as the publication of the "Trade Statistics (Provisional)" by the Ministry of Finance. Instead, the Real export and Real import series, along with Real exports broken down by region and by goods, will now be published one business day after the release of the "Trade Statistics (Provisional)."

Previous Schedule:

  1. (1) Main Series (Real Exports and Real Imports data): released at 2:00 p.m. on the release day of the "Trade Statistics (Provisional)"
  2. (2) Reference Series (Real Exports by Region and by Goods): released at 2:00 p.m., three business days after the release of the "Trade Statistics (Provisional)"

Revised Schedule (Starting with data for April 2026, to be published in May 2026):

Both (1) and (2) listed above will be released at 4:00 p.m., one business day after the release of the "Trade Statistics (Provisional) 2"

Figures for April 2026 will be released at 4:00 p.m. on Friday, May 22, 2026.

  1. 2The previously published Real Trade Balance data will be discontinued.

Inquiries

Economic Assessment and Projection Group,
Economic Research Division, Research and Statistics Department

Tel : +81-3-3279-1111