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Analysis of private consumption using weather data

April 19, 2019
Kunihiro Akutsu*, Yasutaka Koike
Research and Statistics Department

  • Currently at the Kagoshima Branch

Private consumption is affected by temporary disturbance factors such as weather conditions, so it is difficult to assess business conditions. In this paper, we propose "Macro Weather Index" as a comprehensive indicator of Japan's weather conditions, and analyze the effect of weather factors on private consumption. We find that a rise in the amount of precipitation depresses consumer spending and a rise in temperature has a positive effect on private consumption in the summer and a negative influence in the winter. We also find that the effects of weather factors on consumption differ by type as well as by item.

Notice

Bank of Japan Review is published by the Bank of Japan to explain recent economic and financial topics for a wide range of readers. This report, 2019-E-1, is a translation of the original Japanese version, 2019-J-1, published in February 2019. The views expressed in the Review are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Japan.

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