Firm Performance and Macro Forecast Accuracy
April 17, 2018
Mari Tanaka *1
Nicholas Bloom *2
Maiko Koga *3
Haruko Kato *4
Ever since Keyenes' famous quote about animal spirits, there has been an interest in linking firms' expectations and actions. But the empirical evidence on this is scarce because of the lack of firm panel data on expectations and outcomes. In this paper, we combine a unique survey of Japanese firms' GDP forecasts with their accounting data for 27 years for over 1,000 large Japanese firms. We find four main results. First, we find that firms' GDP forecasts are positively and significantly associated with firms' input choices, such as investment and employment, and with firm's sales, even after controlling for year and firm fixed effects. These results are stronger for cyclical firms, suggesting a firm's input decision is particularly dependent on its manager's forecasts when its demand is more sensitive to the macro economy. Second, both optimistic and pessimistic forecast errors lower profitability because it is costly to have too much or too little capacity. Third, while over optimistic forecasts lower measured productivity, over pessimistic forecasts do not tend to have an impact on productivity. Finally, larger and more cyclical firms make more accurate forecasts, presumably reflecting the higher return from accurate forecasts. More productive, older, and bank owned firms also make more accurate forecasts, suggesting that forecasting ability is also linked to management ability, experience and governance. Collectively, this highlights the importance of firms' forecasting ability for micro and macro performance.
D22, D25, D84
Forecast, investment, employment, productivity
- *1Hitotsubashi University, Graduate School of Economics
Email : firstname.lastname@example.org
- *2Stanford University, Department of Economics
Email : email@example.com
- *3Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan
E-mail : firstname.lastname@example.org
- *4Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan
E-mail : email@example.com
Papers in the Bank of Japan Working Paper Series are circulated in order to stimulate discussion and comments. Views expressed are those of authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank.
If you have any comment or question on the working paper series, please contact each author. When making a copy or reproduction of the content for commercial purposes, please contact the Public Relations Department (firstname.lastname@example.org) at the Bank in advance to request permission. When making a copy or reproduction, the source, Bank of Japan Working Paper Series, should explicitly be credited.