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New Facts about Firms' Inflation Expectations: Short- versus Long-Term Inflation Expectations

October 29, 2018
Yosuke Uno*1
Saori Naganuma*2
Naoko Hara*3


In this paper, using large-scale firm-level micro-data from the Tankan survey we examine firms' inflation expectations at different time horizons. Our principle findings are twofold. First, with regard to long-term expectations, a number of firms offer no forecasts. Second, and more importantly, the frequency of forecast revisions is higher for longer time horizons.

JEL classification
E31, E58

long-term inflation expectations, frequency of forecast revisions

We thank Ryohei Hisano, Kosuke Aoki, Masahiro Hori, Shigehiro Kuwabara, Toshitaka Sekine, Koji Nakamura, Hibiki Ichiue, Sohei Kaihatsu, Satoshi Ito, Koki Inamura, Ichiro Muto, Toshinao Yoshiba, Takushi Kurozumi, and Ryo Kato for useful comments. All remaining errors are ours. This paper does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bank of Japan.

  1. *1Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan
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  2. *2Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan (currently at the Financial System and Bank Examination Department)
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  3. *3Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan (currently at the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies)
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