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Analysis of the Transmission of Carbon Tax using a Multi-Sector Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

February 17, 2023
Kohei Matsumura*1
Tomomi Naka*2
Nao Sudo*3


Carbon tax has attracted increasing attention as a means of curbing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While the implementation of carbon taxes necessarily involves consideration of the impact across different sectors and different periods, most existing studies use models which do not provide a detailed account of either sectoral interaction or the dynamic nature of the responses of households and firms. To fill this gap, we construct a New Keynesian multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with an input-output structure of intermediate inputs and an investment network calibrated to Japan's economy. We study the impact over time of carbon tax on different sectors, on aggregate GDP, and on GHG emissions. We then consider the long-term implications through a steady-state analysis, and the short- to medium-term implications by a simulation from 2020 to 2050, under various scenarios with different tax base compositions and announcement timings. We show that the impact on the trade-off between output and GHG emissions is importantly affected by inter-sectoral interactions among firms, and by the intertemporal decisions of households and firms.

JEL classification
D57, E22, H23, Q54

Keywords: carbon tax, climate change, transition risks, input-output linkages

We thank T. Ashizawa, K. Suzuki, and other BOJ staff members for their useful comments and suggestions. We are also grateful to S. Hibiki, Y. Kameyama, T. Masui, and other participants of the meeting between the National Institute for Environmental Studies and the BOJ for helpful comments and suggestions. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Bank of Japan.

  1. *1Financial System and Bank Examination Department , Bank of Japan
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  2. *2Financial System and Bank Examination Department , Bank of Japan
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  3. *3Financial System and Bank Examination Department (currently at the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies), Bank of Japan
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