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Tankan Outline (September 2015)

October 1, 2015
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing
Nonmanu-
facturing
Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 4,479 6,538 11,017 (99.5%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,095 1,045 2,140 (99.4%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,185 1,881 3,066 (99.5%)
Small Enterprises 2,199 3,612 5,811 (99.5%)

[Responding Period: August 26 to September 30]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises(yen per US dollar)
  June 2015 Survey Sept.2015 Survey
FY2014 108.96 -
1H 103.17 -
2H 114.29 -
FY2015 115.62 117.39
1H 115.59 117.50
2H 115.65 117.28
[Business Conditions] (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  June 2015 Sept. 2015 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2015
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   (16)      
15 12 -3 10 -2
Nonmanufacturing   (21)      
23 25 +2 19 -6
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   (4)      
2 5 +3 4 -1
Nonmanufacturing   (14)      
16 17 +1 13 -4
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   (0)      
0 0 0 -2 -2
Nonmanufacturing   (1)      
4 3 -1 1 -2
[All Enterprises]
All industries   (7)      
7 8 +1 5 -3

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] (%points)
  June 2015 Sept. 2015 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2015
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -12 -10 +2 -11 -1
Small Enterprises -23 -23 0 -24 -1
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -7 -8 -1 -6 +2
Small Enterprises -12 -14 -2 -16 -2
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 13 14 +1 - -
Small Enterprises 15 14 -1 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 12 12 0 - -
Small Enterprises 18 20 +2 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -4 -7 -3 -8 -1
Small Enterprises -4 -6 -2 -9 -3
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 14 4 -10 6 +2
Small Enterprises 35 22 -13 24 +2
[Sales] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2014 Revision
rate
FY2015
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.3 - 0.9 0.0
Nonmanufacturing 0.5 - 0.1 -0.2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.9 - 1.6 +0.2
Nonmanufacturing 0.2 - 1.1 -0.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.2 - 0.3 -0.2
Nonmanufacturing 0.0 - -0.5 +0.4
[All Enterprises]
All industries 0.6 - 0.4 0.0

(Note) Revision
rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

[Current Profits] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2014 Revision
rate
FY2015
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 11.5 - 3.8 +3.0
Nonmanufacturing 3.7 - 5.6 +4.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 11.8 - 6.3 +6.3
Nonmanufacturing -0.6 - -1.0 +1.4
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.6 - 2.9 +4.5
Nonmanufacturing 0.8 - -1.1 +4.8
[All Enterprises]
All industries 5.9 - 3.3 +3.7
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] (%, %points)
  FY2014 Changes FY2015
(Forecast)
Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.38 - 7.59 +0.22
Nonmanufacturing 4.66 - 4.92 +0.21
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.74 - 4.96 +0.28
Nonmanufacturing 3.01 - 2.95 +0.04
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.83 - 3.93 +0.18
Nonmanufacturing 3.16 - 3.14 +0.14
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.63 - 4.76 +0.17
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2014 Revision
rate
FY2015
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.6 - 18.7 0.0
Nonmanufacturing 6.0 - 7.2 +2.4
All industries 5.9 - 10.9 +1.5
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.7 - 10.1 -1.5
Nonmanufacturing 1.9 - -2.0 +1.2
All industries 4.2 - 2.2 +0.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.6 - -2.0 +8.8
Nonmanufacturing -5.0 - -7.9 +12.8
All industries -0.8 - -6.1 +11.4
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.8 - 13.5 +1.0
Nonmanufacturing 3.1 - 2.9 +3.9
All industries 4.3 - 6.4 +2.9
  • Excludes Software Investment.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2014 Revision
rate
FY2015
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.2 - 17.1 -0.1
Nonmanufacturing 3.3 - 9.1 +2.4
All industries 4.3 - 11.9 +1.4
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.4 - 12.0 -1.8
Nonmanufacturing 6.2 - 1.7 +1.2
All industries 7.0 - 5.3 +0.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.1 - 2.6 +8.1
Nonmanufacturing 1.3 - -7.7 +9.3
All industries 3.7 - -4.3 +8.9
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.0 - 13.9 +0.7
Nonmanufacturing 3.3 - 5.0 +3.2
All industries 4.6 - 8.1 +2.3
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  June 2015 Sept. 2015 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2015
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 2 1 -1 2 +1
Medium-sized Enterprises 5 2 -3 2 0
Small Enterprises 2 3 +1 1 -2
All Enterprises 3 3 0 2 -1
[Employment Conditions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  June 2015 Sept. 2015 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2015
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises -9 -9 0 -10 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises -16 -18 -2 -20 -2
Small Enterprises -16 -19 -3 -22 -3
All Enterprises -15 -16 -1 -19 -3
[Financial Position (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  June 2015 Sept. 2015 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 22 22 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 17 19 +2
Small Enterprises 5 6 +1
All Enterprises 12 12 0
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  June 2015 Sept. 2015 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 27 27 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 24 23 -1
Small Enterprises 16 16 0
All Enterprises 20 20 0
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  June 2015 Sept. 2015 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2015
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises -5 -5 0 2 +7
Medium-sized Enterprises -7 -7 0 1 +8
Small Enterprises -8 -8 0 1 +9
All Enterprises -7 -8 -1 1 +9
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  June 2015 Sept. 2015 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 31 32 +1