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Tankan Outline (December 2015)

December 14, 2015
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Tankan Summary

Number of Sample Enterprises
	Manu- facturing	Nonmanu- facturing	Total	(Response rate)
All Enterprises	4,462	6,509	10,971	( 99.6%)
of which Large Enterprises	1,091	1,043	2,134	( 99.6%)
Medium-sized Enterprises	1,181	1,877	3,058	( 99.4%)
Small Enterprises	2,190	3,589	5,779	( 99.6%)

[Responding Period: November 11 to December 11]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
	June 2015 Survey	Sept. 2015 Survey	Dec. 2015 Survey
FY2014	108.96	-	-
1H	103.17	-	-
2H	114.29	-	-
FY2015	115.62	117.39	119.40
1H	115.59	117.50	120.84
2H	115.65	117.28	118.00

[Business Conditions] (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
	Sept. 2015	Dec. 2015	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2016 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( 10)
Manufacturing	12	12	0	7	-5
Nonmanufacturing		( 19)
Nonmanufacturing	25	25	0	18	-7
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( 4)
Manufacturing	5	5	0	0	-5
Nonmanufacturing		( 13)
Nonmanufacturing	17	19	+2	12	-7
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( -2)
Manufacturing	0	0	0	-4	-4
Nonmanufacturing		( 1)
Nonmanufacturing	3	5	+2	0	-5
[All Enterprises]
All industries		( 5)
All industries	8	9	+1	3	-6

(Notes)

FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] (%points)
	Sept. 2015	Dec. 2015	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2016 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises	-10	-10	0	-11	-1
Small Enterprises	-23	-24	-1	-26	-2
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises	-8	-9	-1	-8	+1
Small Enterprises	-14	-17	-3	-16	+1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises	14	14	0	-	-
Small Enterprises	14	14	0	-	-
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises	12	12	0	-	-
Small Enterprises	20	20	0	-	-
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises	-7	-11	-4	-11	0
Small Enterprises	-6	-9	-3	-11	-2
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises	4	-2	-6	3	+5
Small Enterprises	22	14	-8	19	+5

[Sales] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2014	Revision rate	FY2015 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	1.3	-	-0.3	-1.1
Nonmanufacturing	0.5	-	-1.6	-1.7
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	1.9	-	1.6	0.0
Nonmanufacturing	0.2	-	0.8	-0.3
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	1.2	-	0.1	-0.3
Nonmanufacturing	0.0	-	-0.5	0.0
[All Enterprises]
All industries	0.6	-	-0.5	-0.8

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

[Current Profits] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2014	Revision rate	FY2015 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	11.5	-	3.3	-0.5
Nonmanufacturing	3.7	-	9.9	+4.0
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	11.8	-	8.6	+2.2
Nonmanufacturing	-0.6	-	3.1	+4.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	8.6	-	3.1	+0.2
Nonmanufacturing	0.8	-	1.5	+2.6
[All Enterprises]
All industries	5.9	-	5.4	+2.0

[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] (%, %points)
	FY2014	Changes	FY2015 (Forecast)	Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	7.38	-	7.64	+0.05
Nonmanufacturing	4.66	-	5.20	+0.28
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	4.74	-	5.07	+0.11
Nonmanufacturing	3.01	-	3.08	+0.13
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	3.83	-	3.95	+0.02
Nonmanufacturing	3.16	-	3.22	+0.08
[All Enterprises]
All industries	4.63	-	4.90	+0.14

[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2014	Revision rate	FY2015 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	5.6	-	15.5	-2.7
Nonmanufacturing	6.0	-	8.5	+1.3
All industries	5.9	-	10.8	-0.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	8.7	-	11.3	+1.1
Nonmanufacturing	1.9	-	1.3	+3.4
All industries	4.2	-	4.8	+2.5
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	9.6	-	1.5	+3.5
Nonmanufacturing	-5.0	-	-1.0	+7.6
All industries	-0.8	-	-0.2	+6.3
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing	6.8	-	12.2	-1.1
Nonmanufacturing	3.1	-	5.6	+2.7
All industries	4.3	-	7.8	+1.3

Excludes Software Investment.

[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2014	Revision rate	FY2015 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	6.2	-	14.2	-2.5
Nonmanufacturing	3.3	-	8.8	-0.2
All industries	4.3	-	10.7	-1.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	8.4	-	12.3	+0.3
Nonmanufacturing	6.2	-	3.6	+1.9
All industries	7.0	-	6.7	+1.3
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	9.1	-	4.6	+1.9
Nonmanufacturing	1.3	-	-1.7	+6.5
All industries	3.7	-	0.3	+4.9
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing	7.0	-	12.3	-1.4
Nonmanufacturing	3.3	-	6.1	+1.1
All industries	4.6	-	8.3	+0.2

[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
	Sept. 2015	Dec. 2015	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2016 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	1	3	+2	3	0
Medium-sized Enterprises	2	3	+1	2	-1
Small Enterprises	3	4	+1	2	-2
All Enterprises	3	3	0	2	-1

[Employment Conditions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
	Sept. 2015	Dec. 2015	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2016 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	-9	-12	-3	-12	0
Medium-sized Enterprises	-18	-21	-3	-21	0
Small Enterprises	-19	-21	-2	-23	-2
All Enterprises	-16	-19	-3	-20	-1

[Financial Position (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
	Sept. 2015	Dec. 2015	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	22	22	0
Medium-sized Enterprises	19	20	+1
Small Enterprises	6	6	0
All Enterprises	12	13	+1

[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
	Sept. 2015	Dec. 2015	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	27	26	-1
Medium-sized Enterprises	23	25	+2
Small Enterprises	16	17	+1
All Enterprises	20	20	0

[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
	Sept. 2015	Dec. 2015	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2016 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	-5	-5	0	2	+7
Medium-sized Enterprises	-7	-7	0	1	+8
Small Enterprises	-8	-8	0	0	+8
All Enterprises	-8	-7	+1	1	+8

[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
	Sept. 2015	Dec. 2015	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	32	33	+1