Tankan Outline (March 2016)
April 1, 2016
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Manu- facturing |
Nonmanu- facturing |
Total | (Response rate) |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 4,441 | 6,489 | 10,930 | (99.4%) |
of which Large Enterprises | 1,087 | 1,043 | 2,130 | (99.4%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,178 | 1,871 | 3,049 | (99.5%) |
Small Enterprises | 2,176 | 3,575 | 5,751 | (99.3%) |
[Responding Period: February 25 to March 31]
Dec. 2015 Survey | March 2016 Survey | |
---|---|---|
FY2015 | 119.40 | 119.80 |
1H | 120.84 | 120.93 |
2H | 118.00 | 118.69 |
FY2016 | - | 117.46 |
1H | - | 117.45 |
2H | - | 117.46 |
Dec. 2015 | March 2016 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | (7) | ||||
12 | 6 | -6 | 3 | -3 | |
Nonmanufacturing | (18) | ||||
25 | 22 | -3 | 17 | -5 | |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | (0) | ||||
5 | 5 | 0 | -2 | -7 | |
Nonmanufacturing | (12) | ||||
19 | 17 | -2 | 9 | -8 | |
[Small Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | (-4) | ||||
0 | -4 | -4 | -6 | -2 | |
Nonmanufacturing | (0) | ||||
5 | 4 | -1 | -3 | -7 | |
[All Enterprises] | |||||
All industries | (3) | ||||
9 | 7 | -2 | 1 | -6 |
(Notes)
- FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Dec. 2015 | March 2016 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -10 | -13 | -3 | -13 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -24 | -26 | -2 | -27 | -1 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -9 | -11 | -2 | -9 | +2 |
Small Enterprises | -17 | -18 | -1 | -17 | +1 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 14 | 15 | +1 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 14 | 14 | 0 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 12 | 14 | +2 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 20 | 20 | 0 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -11 | -15 | -4 | -13 | +2 |
Small Enterprises | -9 | -11 | -2 | -13 | -2 |
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -2 | -8 | -6 | -1 | +7 |
Small Enterprises | 14 | 7 | -7 | 12 | +5 |
FY2015 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY2016 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -1.5 | -1.3 | -0.6 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -1.6 | 0.0 | -0.3 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 0.6 | -0.9 | 0.9 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.3 | -0.4 | 1.7 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 0.1 | +0.1 | 0.5 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -1.0 | -0.5 | -0.4 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | -1.0 | -0.5 | 0.0 | - |
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.
FY2015 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY2016 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -3.5 | -6.6 | -1.9 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 11.9 | +1.9 | -2.1 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 7.7 | -0.9 | -0.8 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.0 | +1.8 | 2.1 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 0.2 | -2.7 | 2.4 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.0 | +4.4 | -7.9 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 4.3 | -1.0 | -2.2 | - |
FY2015 (Forecast) |
Changes | FY2016 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 7.23 | -0.41 | 7.13 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.30 | +0.10 | 5.21 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.07 | 0.00 | 4.99 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.15 | +0.07 | 3.17 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.84 | -0.11 | 3.91 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.38 | +0.16 | 3.13 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 4.87 | -0.03 | 4.77 | - |
FY2015 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY2016 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 13.3 | -1.9 | 3.1 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 8.1 | -0.4 | -2.9 | - |
All industries | 9.8 | -0.9 | -0.9 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 7.4 | -3.5 | 5.1 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.2 | +2.9 | -10.0 | - |
All industries | 5.3 | +0.5 | -4.7 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.8 | +3.3 | -22.0 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.5 | +4.5 | -18.0 | - |
All industries | 3.9 | +4.1 | -19.3 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 10.8 | -1.3 | -0.9 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.7 | +1.0 | -6.8 | - |
All industries | 8.0 | +0.2 | -4.8 | - |
- Excludes Software Investment.
FY2015 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY2016 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 12.0 | -1.9 | 3.6 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 7.0 | -1.7 | 1.1 | - |
All industries | 8.7 | -1.8 | 2.0 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.0 | -3.9 | 7.2 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.2 | +1.5 | -5.9 | - |
All industries | 6.2 | -0.5 | -1.3 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 7.8 | +3.1 | -20.9 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -1.2 | +0.5 | -8.0 | - |
All industries | 1.7 | +1.4 | -12.5 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 10.7 | -1.5 | 0.2 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.2 | -0.9 | -1.5 | - |
All industries | 7.1 | -1.1 | -0.9 | - |
Dec. 2015 | March 2016 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 3 | 4 | +1 | 3 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 3 | 4 | +1 | 3 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 4 | 3 | -1 | 1 | -2 |
All Enterprises | 3 | 4 | +1 | 2 | -2 |
Dec. 2015 | March 2016 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -12 | -11 | +1 | -10 | +1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -21 | -21 | 0 | -21 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -21 | -20 | +1 | -23 | -3 |
All Enterprises | -19 | -18 | +1 | -20 | -2 |
Dec. 2015 | March 2016 | Change between Dec. and March |
|
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 22 | 22 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 20 | 20 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 6 | 6 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 13 | 13 | 0 |
Dec. 2015 | March 2016 | Change between Dec. and March |
|
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 26 | 28 | +2 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 25 | 27 | +2 |
Small Enterprises | 17 | 20 | +3 |
All Enterprises | 20 | 23 | +3 |
Dec. 2015 | March 2016 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -5 | -31 | -26 | -20 | +11 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -7 | -27 | -20 | -21 | +6 |
Small Enterprises | -8 | -24 | -16 | -22 | +2 |
All Enterprises | -7 | -26 | -19 | -22 | +4 |
Dec. 2015 | March 2016 | Change between Dec. and March |
|
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 33 | 38 | +5 |