Tankan Outline (June 2016)
July 1, 2016
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Manu- facturing |
Nonmanu- facturing |
Total | (Response rate) |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 4,412 | 6,450 | 10,862 | (99.7%) |
of which Large Enterprises | 1,085 | 1,041 | 2,126 | (99.7%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,170 | 1,860 | 3,030 | (99.6%) |
Small Enterprises | 2,157 | 3,549 | 5,706 | (99.7%) |
[Responding Period: May 30 to June 30]
March 2016 Survey | June 2016 Survey | |
---|---|---|
FY2015 | 119.80 | 119.87 |
1H | 120.93 | 120.98 |
2H | 118.69 | 118.73 |
FY2016 | 117.46 | 111.41 |
1H | 117.45 | 111.46 |
2H | 117.46 | 111.36 |
March 2016 | June 2016 | Change between March and June |
Sept. 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between June and Sept. |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | (3) | ||||
6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | |
Nonmanufacturing | (17) | ||||
22 | 19 | -3 | 17 | -2 | |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | (-2) | ||||
5 | 1 | -4 | 0 | -1 | |
Nonmanufacturing | (9) | ||||
17 | 14 | -3 | 10 | -4 | |
[Small Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | (-6) | ||||
-4 | -5 | -1 | -7 | -2 | |
Nonmanufacturing | (-3) | ||||
4 | 0 | -4 | -4 | -4 | |
[All Enterprises] | |||||
All industries | (1) | ||||
7 | 4 | -3 | 2 | -2 |
(Notes)
- FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
March 2016 | June 2016 | Change between March and June |
Sept. 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between June and Sept. |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -13 | -10 | +3 | -11 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -26 | -26 | 0 | -26 | 0 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -11 | -8 | +3 | -8 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -18 | -17 | +1 | -16 | +1 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 15 | 13 | -2 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 14 | 15 | +1 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 14 | 13 | -1 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 20 | 20 | 0 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -15 | -12 | +3 | -9 | +3 |
Small Enterprises | -11 | -12 | -1 | -13 | -1 |
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -8 | -2 | +6 | 4 | +6 |
Small Enterprises | 7 | 7 | 0 | 15 | +8 |
FY2015 | Revision rate |
FY2016 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -2.3 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | -2.8 | -1.2 | -0.8 | -1.7 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 0.5 | -0.1 | 0.7 | -0.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.5 | +0.1 | 2.0 | +0.4 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 0.6 | +0.5 | 0.2 | +0.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.3 | +0.7 | -0.6 | +0.5 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | -1.3 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.5 |
(Note) Revision
rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.
FY2015 | Revision rate |
FY2016 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -5.3 | -1.8 | -11.6 | -11.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | 11.5 | -0.4 | -3.4 | -1.8 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.0 | +0.3 | -4.2 | -3.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | 9.5 | +4.3 | -3.7 | -1.6 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.4 | +3.1 | 1.1 | +1.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 10.1 | +3.8 | -12.8 | -1.7 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 4.8 | +0.4 | -7.2 | -4.7 |
FY2015 | Changes | FY2016 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 7.15 | -0.08 | 6.35 | -0.78 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.35 | +0.05 | 5.21 | 0.00 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.09 | +0.02 | 4.85 | -0.14 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.28 | +0.13 | 3.10 | -0.07 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.94 | +0.10 | 3.97 | +0.06 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.48 | +0.10 | 3.06 | -0.07 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 4.91 | +0.04 | 4.56 | -0.21 |
FY2015 | Revision rate |
FY2016 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.4 | -4.3 | 12.8 | +4.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.0 | -6.6 | 2.7 | -1.1 |
All industries | 3.4 | -5.8 | 6.2 | +0.9 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.3 | +1.7 | 5.8 | +2.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | 8.3 | +3.9 | -10.2 | +3.7 |
All industries | 8.7 | +3.1 | -4.6 | +3.2 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 11.5 | +6.4 | -17.8 | +12.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.2 | +1.7 | -13.5 | +7.3 |
All industries | 7.2 | +3.2 | -14.9 | +8.8 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.1 | -1.5 | 6.0 | +5.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.9 | -3.5 | -2.5 | +1.0 |
All industries | 5.0 | -2.8 | 0.4 | +2.5 |
- Excludes Software Investment.
FY2015 | Revision rate |
FY2016 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.0 | -3.5 | 12.0 | +4.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.1 | -6.6 | 7.5 | -0.7 |
All industries | 2.8 | -5.5 | 9.1 | +1.1 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.4 | +1.3 | 7.5 | +1.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | 8.1 | +2.8 | -7.7 | +0.9 |
All industries | 8.6 | +2.3 | -2.3 | +1.2 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 14.9 | +6.6 | -16.8 | +12.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | -1.0 | +0.2 | -2.7 | +6.0 |
All industries | 4.2 | +2.4 | -7.7 | +7.9 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.4 | -1.2 | 6.3 | +4.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.0 | -4.0 | 3.2 | +0.6 |
All industries | 3.9 | -3.0 | 4.3 | +2.1 |
March 2016 | June 2016 | Change between March and June |
Sept. 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between June and Sept. |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 4 | 5 | +1 | 2 | -3 |
Small Enterprises | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 |
All Enterprises | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 |
March 2016 | June 2016 | Change between March and June |
Sept. 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between June and Sept. |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -11 | -10 | +1 | -10 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -21 | -19 | +2 | -21 | -2 |
Small Enterprises | -20 | -19 | +1 | -23 | -4 |
All Enterprises | -18 | -17 | +1 | -20 | -3 |
March 2016 | June 2016 | Change between March and June |
|
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 22 | 24 | +2 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 20 | 21 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | 6 | 7 | +1 |
All Enterprises | 13 | 14 | +1 |
March 2016 | June 2016 | Change between March and June |
|
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 28 | 29 | +1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 27 | 28 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | 20 | 19 | -1 |
All Enterprises | 23 | 23 | 0 |
March 2016 | June 2016 | Change between March and June |
Sept. 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between June and Sept. |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -31 | -27 | +4 | -10 | +17 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -27 | -27 | 0 | -12 | +15 |
Small Enterprises | -24 | -24 | 0 | -13 | +11 |
All Enterprises | -26 | -26 | 0 | -12 | +14 |
March 2016 | June 2016 | Change between March and June |
|
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 38 | 39 | +1 |