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Tankan Outline (September 2017)

October 2, 2017
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing
Nonmanu-
facturing
Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 4,343 6,344 10,687 ( 99.4%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,074 1,029 2,103 ( 99.3%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,143 1,837 2,980 ( 99.3%)
Small Enterprises 2,126 3,478 5,604 ( 99.6%)

[Responding Period: August 29 to September 29]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
  June 2017 Survey Sept. 2017 Survey
FY2016 108.29 -
1H 106.57 -
2H 109.89 -
FY2017 108.31 109.29
1H 108.36 109.46
2H 108.27 109.12
Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  June 2017 Sept. 2017 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 15)      
17 22 +5 19 -3
Nonmanufacturing   ( 18)      
23 23 0 19 -4
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 11)      
12 17 +5 13 -4
Nonmanufacturing   ( 12)      
18 19 +1 14 -5
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 6)      
7 10 +3 8 -2
Nonmanufacturing   ( 2)      
7 8 +1 4 -4
[All Enterprises]
All industries   ( 8)      
12 15 +3 11 -4

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) (%points)
  June 2017 Sept. 2017 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -6 -5 +1 -6 -1
Small Enterprises -18 -16 +2 -17 -1
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -2 0 +2 0 0
Small Enterprises -12 -8 +4 -9 -1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 8 8 0 - -
Small Enterprises 10 10 0 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 7 6 -1 - -
Small Enterprises 15 13 -2 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -1 0 +1 -2 -2
Small Enterprises -4 -2 +2 -1 +1
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 13 14 +1 13 -1
Small Enterprises 26 28 +2 31 +3
Sales (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -2.9 - 2.7 +0.3
Nonmanufacturing -3.8 - 2.8 +0.2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.1 - 3.4 +0.6
Nonmanufacturing 0.9 - 2.4 -0.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing -0.3 - 1.8 0.0
Nonmanufacturing 0.8 - 0.8 +0.6
[All Enterprises]
All industries -1.5 - 2.2 +0.3

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

Current Profits (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -0.5 - 4.7 +8.3
Nonmanufacturing 5.7 - -1.6 +1.2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.5 - 0.8 +1.9
Nonmanufacturing 9.2 - -3.6 +2.4
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 16.4 - -3.0 +0.3
Nonmanufacturing 5.8 - -8.6 +1.0
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.4 - -1.0 +3.4
Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (%, %points)
  FY2016 Changes FY2017
(Forecast)
Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.33 - 7.47 +0.55
Nonmanufacturing 5.87 - 5.62 +0.05
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.12 - 4.99 +0.07
Nonmanufacturing 3.55 - 3.34 +0.08
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.60 - 4.38 +0.01
Nonmanufacturing 3.66 - 3.32 +0.02
[All Enterprises]
All industries 5.21 - 5.04 +0.15
Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses * (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.3 - 14.1 -1.2
Nonmanufacturing -5.4 - 4.0 +0.3
All industries -2.1 - 7.7 -0.3
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.3 - 13.2 +2.1
Nonmanufacturing -3.1 - 19.6 +3.2
All industries 0.2 - 17.2 +2.8
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing -6.7 - 0.9 +9.8
Nonmanufacturing 16.3 - -19.9 +7.6
All industries 8.8 - -14.1 +8.3
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.6 - 11.7 +0.9
Nonmanufacturing -0.7 - 0.8 +2.1
All industries 0.4 - 4.6 +1.7
  • Excludes software and R&D investment.
Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.7 - 7.9 -0.6
Nonmanufacturing -3.1 - 7.1 +0.1
All industries -1.0 - 7.5 -0.3
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.8 - 14.0 +1.7
Nonmanufacturing -7.1 - 22.9 +2.8
All industries -1.0 - 19.1 +2.4
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing -7.4 - 4.7 +6.9
Nonmanufacturing 18.6 - -14.0 +7.5
All industries 8.7 - -7.9 +7.3
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.6 - 8.2 +0.3
Nonmanufacturing 0.0 - 5.2 +1.7
All industries 0.3 - 6.7 +1.0
Production Capacity (Manufacturing) (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  June 2017 Sept. 2017 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises -1 -1 0 0 +1
Medium-sized Enterprises 1 -2 -3 -4 -2
Small Enterprises -1 -3 -2 -5 -2
All Enterprises 0 -2 -2 -3 -1
Employment Conditions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  June 2017 Sept. 2017 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises -16 -18 -2 -18 0
Medium-sized Enterprises -25 -30 -5 -33 -3
Small Enterprises -27 -32 -5 -36 -4
All Enterprises -25 -28 -3 -31 -3
Financial Position (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  June 2017 Sept. 2017 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 25 24 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 24 24 0
Small Enterprises 11 11 0
All Enterprises 17 17 0
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  June 2017 Sept. 2017 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 27 26 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 28 28 0
Small Enterprises 21 21 0
All Enterprises 24 23 -1
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  June 2017 Sept. 2017 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises -3 -2 +1 2 +4
Medium-sized Enterprises -6 -5 +1 1 +6
Small Enterprises -9 -8 +1 -1 +7
All Enterprises -7 -6 +1 1 +7
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  June 2017 Sept. 2017 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 46 44 -2