Tankan Outline (September 2017)
October 2, 2017
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Manu- facturing |
Nonmanu- facturing |
Total | (Response rate) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 4,343 | 6,344 | 10,687 | ( 99.4%) |
of which Large Enterprises | 1,074 | 1,029 | 2,103 | ( 99.3%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,143 | 1,837 | 2,980 | ( 99.3%) |
Small Enterprises | 2,126 | 3,478 | 5,604 | ( 99.6%) |
[Responding Period: August 29 to September 29]
June 2017 Survey | Sept. 2017 Survey | |
---|---|---|
FY2016 | 108.29 | - |
1H | 106.57 | - |
2H | 109.89 | - |
FY2017 | 108.31 | 109.29 |
1H | 108.36 | 109.46 |
2H | 108.27 | 109.12 |
June 2017 | Sept. 2017 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2017 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 15) | ||||
17 | 22 | +5 | 19 | -3 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 18) | ||||
23 | 23 | 0 | 19 | -4 | |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 11) | ||||
12 | 17 | +5 | 13 | -4 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 12) | ||||
18 | 19 | +1 | 14 | -5 | |
[Small Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 6) | ||||
7 | 10 | +3 | 8 | -2 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 2) | ||||
7 | 8 | +1 | 4 | -4 | |
[All Enterprises] | |||||
All industries | ( 8) | ||||
12 | 15 | +3 | 11 | -4 |
(Notes)
- FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
June 2017 | Sept. 2017 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2017 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -6 | -5 | +1 | -6 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -18 | -16 | +2 | -17 | -1 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -12 | -8 | +4 | -9 | -1 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 8 | 8 | 0 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 10 | 10 | 0 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 7 | 6 | -1 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 15 | 13 | -2 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -1 | 0 | +1 | -2 | -2 |
Small Enterprises | -4 | -2 | +2 | -1 | +1 |
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 13 | 14 | +1 | 13 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 26 | 28 | +2 | 31 | +3 |
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -2.9 | - | 2.7 | +0.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | -3.8 | - | 2.8 | +0.2 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 0.1 | - | 3.4 | +0.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.9 | - | 2.4 | -0.1 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -0.3 | - | 1.8 | 0.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.8 | - | 0.8 | +0.6 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | -1.5 | - | 2.2 | +0.3 |
(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -0.5 | - | 4.7 | +8.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.7 | - | -1.6 | +1.2 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 0.5 | - | 0.8 | +1.9 |
Nonmanufacturing | 9.2 | - | -3.6 | +2.4 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 16.4 | - | -3.0 | +0.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.8 | - | -8.6 | +1.0 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 4.4 | - | -1.0 | +3.4 |
FY2016 | Changes | FY2017 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 7.33 | - | 7.47 | +0.55 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.87 | - | 5.62 | +0.05 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.12 | - | 4.99 | +0.07 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.55 | - | 3.34 | +0.08 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.60 | - | 4.38 | +0.01 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.66 | - | 3.32 | +0.02 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 5.21 | - | 5.04 | +0.15 |
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.3 | - | 14.1 | -1.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | -5.4 | - | 4.0 | +0.3 |
All industries | -2.1 | - | 7.7 | -0.3 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.3 | - | 13.2 | +2.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | -3.1 | - | 19.6 | +3.2 |
All industries | 0.2 | - | 17.2 | +2.8 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -6.7 | - | 0.9 | +9.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 16.3 | - | -19.9 | +7.6 |
All industries | 8.8 | - | -14.1 | +8.3 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 2.6 | - | 11.7 | +0.9 |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.7 | - | 0.8 | +2.1 |
All industries | 0.4 | - | 4.6 | +1.7 |
- Excludes software and R&D investment.
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 0.7 | - | 7.9 | -0.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | -3.1 | - | 7.1 | +0.1 |
All industries | -1.0 | - | 7.5 | -0.3 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.8 | - | 14.0 | +1.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | -7.1 | - | 22.9 | +2.8 |
All industries | -1.0 | - | 19.1 | +2.4 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -7.4 | - | 4.7 | +6.9 |
Nonmanufacturing | 18.6 | - | -14.0 | +7.5 |
All industries | 8.7 | - | -7.9 | +7.3 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 0.6 | - | 8.2 | +0.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.0 | - | 5.2 | +1.7 |
All industries | 0.3 | - | 6.7 | +1.0 |
June 2017 | Sept. 2017 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2017 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1 | -2 | -3 | -4 | -2 |
Small Enterprises | -1 | -3 | -2 | -5 | -2 |
All Enterprises | 0 | -2 | -2 | -3 | -1 |
June 2017 | Sept. 2017 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2017 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -16 | -18 | -2 | -18 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -25 | -30 | -5 | -33 | -3 |
Small Enterprises | -27 | -32 | -5 | -36 | -4 |
All Enterprises | -25 | -28 | -3 | -31 | -3 |
June 2017 | Sept. 2017 | Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 25 | 24 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 24 | 24 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 11 | 11 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 17 | 17 | 0 |
June 2017 | Sept. 2017 | Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 27 | 26 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 28 | 28 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 21 | 21 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 24 | 23 | -1 |
June 2017 | Sept. 2017 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2017 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -3 | -2 | +1 | 2 | +4 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -6 | -5 | +1 | 1 | +6 |
Small Enterprises | -9 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +7 |
All Enterprises | -7 | -6 | +1 | 1 | +7 |
June 2017 | Sept. 2017 | Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 46 | 44 | -2 |