Tankan Outline (December 2017)
December 15, 2017
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manufacturing | Nonmanufacturing | Total | Response rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 4,333 | 6,312 | 10,645 | 99.6% |
of which Large Enterprises | 1,074 | 1,023 | 2,097 | 99.6% |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,140 | 1,831 | 2,971 | 99.5% |
Small Enterprises | 2,119 | 3,458 | 5,577 | 99.6% |
[Responding Period: November 14 to December 14]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
June 2017 Survey | Sept. 2017 Survey | Dec. 2017 Survey | |
---|---|---|---|
FY2016 | 108.29 | n.a. | n.a. |
1H | 106.57 | n.a. | n.a. |
2H | 109.89 | n.a. | n.a. |
FY2017 | 108.31 | 109.29 | 110.18 |
1H | 108.36 | 109.46 | 110.69 |
2H | 108.27 | 109.12 | 109.66 |
Business Conditions
[Large Enterprises]
Sept. 2017 | Dec. 2017 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | n.a. | ( 19) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Manufacturing | 22 | 25 | +3 | 19 | -6 |
Nonmanufacturing | n.a. | ( 19) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Nonmanufacturing | 23 | 23 | 0 | 20 | -3 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Sept. 2017 | Dec. 2017 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | n.a. | ( 13) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Manufacturing | 17 | 19 | +2 | 14 | -5 |
Nonmanufacturing | n.a. | ( 14) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Nonmanufacturing | 19 | 20 | +1 | 14 | -6 |
[Small Enterprises]
Sept. 2017 | Dec. 2017 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | n.a. | ( 8) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Manufacturing | 10 | 15 | +5 | 11 | -4 |
Nonmanufacturing | n.a. | ( 4) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Nonmanufacturing | 8 | 9 | +1 | 5 | -4 |
[All Enterprises]
Sept. 2017 | Dec. 2017 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | n.a. | ( 11) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
All industries | 15 | 16 | +1 | 11 | -5 |
(Notes)
- FY : fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H : first half (April - September)
2H : second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Sept. 2017 | Dec. 2017 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -5 | -2 | +3 | -3 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -16 | -13 | +3 | -15 | -2 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Sept. 2017 | Dec. 2017 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 0 | 3 | +3 | 1 | -2 |
Small Enterprises | -8 | -7 | +1 | -6 | +1 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Sept. 2017 | Dec. 2017 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 8 | 7 | -1 | n.a. | n.a. |
Small Enterprises | 10 | 10 | 0 | n.a. | n.a. |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Sept. 2017 | Dec. 2017 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 6 | 4 | -2 | n.a. | n.a. |
Small Enterprises | 13 | 10 | -3 | n.a. | n.a. |
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Sept. 2017 | Dec. 2017 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -2 | 0 | +2 | 1 | +1 |
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Sept. 2017 | Dec. 2017 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 14 | 18 | +4 | 18 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 28 | 33 | +5 | 37 | +4 |
Sales
[Large Enterprises]
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -2.9 | n.a. | 3.9 | +1.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | -3.8 | n.a. | 3.8 | +0.9 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 0.1 | n.a. | 4.4 | +0.9 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.9 | n.a. | 2.5 | +0.1 |
[Small Enterprises]
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -0.3 | n.a. | 2.5 | +0.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.8 | n.a. | 1.4 | +0.7 |
[All Enterprises]
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | -1.5 | n.a. | 3.0 | +0.8 |
(Note)
Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.
Current Profits
[Large Enterprises]
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -0.5 | n.a. | 15.0 | +9.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.7 | n.a. | 4.9 | +6.6 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 0.5 | n.a. | 4.2 | +3.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | 9.2 | n.a. | -2.2 | +1.4 |
[Small Enterprises]
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 16.4 | n.a. | 0.7 | +3.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.8 | n.a. | -6.0 | +2.9 |
[All Enterprises]
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 4.4 | n.a. | 5.2 | +6.2 |
Ratio of Current Profit to Sales
[Large Enterprises]
FY2016 | Changes | FY2017 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 7.33 | n.a. | 8.11 | +0.64 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.87 | n.a. | 5.94 | +0.32 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
FY2016 | Changes | FY2017 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 5.12 | n.a. | 5.11 | +0.12 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.55 | n.a. | 3.39 | +0.05 |
[Small Enterprises]
FY2016 | Changes | FY2017 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 4.60 | n.a. | 4.52 | +0.14 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.66 | n.a. | 3.39 | +0.07 |
[All Enterprises]
FY2016 | Changes | FY2017 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 5.21 | n.a. | 5.31 | +0.27 |
Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *
[Large Enterprises]
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 4.3 | n.a. | 10.2 | -3.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | -5.4 | n.a. | 5.8 | +1.8 |
All industries | -2.1 | n.a. | 7.4 | -0.3 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 6.3 | n.a. | 15.3 | +1.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | -3.1 | n.a. | 21.1 | +1.2 |
All industries | 0.2 | n.a. | 18.9 | +1.5 |
[Small Enterprises]
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -6.7 | n.a. | 4.4 | +3.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | 16.3 | n.a. | -10.6 | +11.5 |
All industries | 8.8 | n.a. | -6.4 | +8.9 |
[All Enterprises]
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 2.6 | n.a. | 10.1 | -1.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.7 | n.a. | 4.3 | +3.5 |
All industries | 0.4 | n.a. | 6.3 | +1.6 |
- Excludes software and R&D investment.
Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses
[Large Enterprises]
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 0.7 | n.a. | 6.5 | -1.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | -3.1 | n.a. | 8.5 | +1.4 |
All industries | -1.0 | n.a. | 7.4 | -0.1 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 8.8 | n.a. | 14.8 | +0.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | -7.1 | n.a. | 24.0 | +0.9 |
All industries | -1.0 | n.a. | 20.1 | +0.8 |
[Small Enterprises]
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -7.4 | n.a. | 7.2 | +2.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 18.6 | n.a. | -7.2 | +8.0 |
All industries | 8.7 | n.a. | -2.5 | +5.9 |
[All Enterprises]
FY2016 | Revision rate |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 0.6 | n.a. | 7.4 | -0.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.0 | n.a. | 7.7 | +2.4 |
All industries | 0.3 | n.a. | 7.5 | +0.8 |
Production Capacity (Manufacturing)
Sept. 2017 | Dec. 2017 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -1 | -2 | -1 | -2 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -2 | -3 | -1 | -5 | -2 |
Small Enterprises | -3 | -6 | -3 | -6 | 0 |
All Enterprises | -2 | -4 | -2 | -6 | -2 |
Employment Conditions (All industries)
Sept. 2017 | Dec. 2017 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -18 | -19 | -1 | -20 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -30 | -33 | -3 | -34 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -32 | -34 | -2 | -39 | -5 |
All Enterprises | -28 | -31 | -3 | -33 | -2 |
Financial Position (All industries)
Sept. 2017 | Dec. 2017 | Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 24 | 24 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 24 | 24 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 11 | 11 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 17 | 17 | 0 |
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)
Sept. 2017 | Dec. 2017 | Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 26 | 27 | +1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 28 | 27 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 21 | 21 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 23 | 24 | +1 |
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)
Sept. 2017 | Dec. 2017 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -2 | 0 | +2 | 4 | +4 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -5 | -3 | +2 | 4 | +7 |
Small Enterprises | -8 | -6 | +2 | 1 | +7 |
All Enterprises | -6 | -4 | +2 | 3 | +7 |
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)
Sept. 2017 | Dec. 2017 | Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 44 | 46 | +2 |