Tankan Outline (March 2020)

April 1, 2020
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Tankan Summary

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
		Manufacturing	Nonmanufacturing	Total	(Response rate)
All Enterprises		3,982	5,671	9,653	( 99.0%)
All Enterprises	of which Large Enterprises	1,000	908	1,908	( 98.8%)
	Medium-sized Enterprises	1,032	1,674	2,706	( 99.1%)
	Small Enterprises	1,950	3,089	5,039	( 98.9%)

[Responding Period: February 25 to March 31]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses

Table: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises yen/U.S. dollar
		Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey
FY 2019		-	108.67
FY 2019	1H	-	108.90
FY 2019	2H	-	108.45
FY 2020		-	107.98
FY 2020	1H	-	107.95
FY 2020	2H	-	108.02

Table: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises yen/euro
		Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey
FY 2019		-	121.78
FY 2019	1H	-	122.25
FY 2019	2H	-	121.30
FY 2020		-	120.29
FY 2020	1H	-	120.29
FY 2020	2H	-	120.30

Business Conditions

Large Enterprises

Table: Business Conditions DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2020 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Manufacturing		( 0)
Manufacturing	0	-8	-8	-11	-3
Nonmanufacturing		( 18)
Nonmanufacturing	20	8	-12	-1	-9

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Business Conditions DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2020 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Manufacturing		( -4)
Manufacturing	1	-8	-9	-20	-12
Nonmanufacturing		( 7)
Nonmanufacturing	14	0	-14	-14	-14

Small Enterprises

Table: Business Conditions DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2020 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Manufacturing		( -12)
Manufacturing	-9	-15	-6	-29	-14
Nonmanufacturing		( 1)
Nonmanufacturing	7	-1	-8	-19	-18

All Enterprises

Table: Business Conditions DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2020 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
All industries		( 0)
All industries	4	-4	-8	-18	-14

(Notes)

FY : Fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H : First half (April - September)
2H : Second half (October - March of the following year)
Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services

Table: Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
	Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2020 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	-10	-14	-4	-16	-2
Small Enterprises	-23	-27	-4	-32	-5

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products

Table: Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
	Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2020 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	-12	-14	-2	-14	0
Small Enterprises	-20	-22	-2	-26	-4

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise

Table: Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
	Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2020 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	14	14	0	-	-
Small Enterprises	16	18	+2	-	-

Wholesalers' Inventory Level

Table: Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
	Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2020 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	11	13	+2	-	-
Small Enterprises	19	20	+1	-	-

Change in Output Prices

Table: Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
	Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2020 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	-6	-7	-1	-10	-3
Small Enterprises	-4	-5	-1	-8	-3

Change in Input Prices

Table: Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
	Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2020 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	6	5	-1	7	+2
Small Enterprises	24	19	-5	22	+3

Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Sales year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-1.9	-0.4	0.6	-
Nonmanufacturing	-1.3	-1.0	0.5	-

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Sales year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-0.9	-0.9	0.5	-
Nonmanufacturing	1.9	-0.7	0.4	-

Small Enterprises

Table: Sales year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-2.7	-1.0	-0.5	-
Nonmanufacturing	0.2	-0.1	-1.5	-

All Enterprises

Table: Sales year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries	-0.7	-0.6	0.1	-

(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and previous survey.

Current Profits

Large Enterprises

Table: Current Profits year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-13.3	+2.2	-2.8	-
Nonmanufacturing	-4.5	-0.7	-1.2	-

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Current Profits year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-4.4	+1.7	-5.0	-
Nonmanufacturing	-2.6	-0.8	-4.0	-

Small Enterprises

Table: Current Profits year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-18.1	-5.1	-0.1	-
Nonmanufacturing	-3.3	-2.1	-4.4	-

All Enterprises

Table: Current Profits year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries	-7.6	-0.1	-2.5	-

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Ratio of Current Profit to Sales %, %points
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Changes	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Changes
Manufacturing	7.26	+0.18	7.02	-
Nonmanufacturing	6.32	+0.02	6.21	-

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Ratio of Current Profit to Sales %, %points
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Changes	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Changes
Manufacturing	5.13	+0.12	4.85	-
Nonmanufacturing	3.71	-0.01	3.55	-

Small Enterprises

Table: Ratio of Current Profit to Sales %, %points
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Changes	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Changes
Manufacturing	3.81	-0.16	3.82	-
Nonmanufacturing	3.39	-0.07	3.29	-

All Enterprises

Table: Ratio of Current Profit to Sales %, %points
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Changes	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Changes
All industries	5.31	+0.03	5.17	-

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses^*

Large Enterprises

Table: Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	8.3	-2.7	4.3	-
Nonmanufacturing	4.8	+0.5	0.3	-
All industries	6.1	-0.7	1.8	-

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-8.5	-5.8	7.6	-
Nonmanufacturing	-5.7	-0.1	0.6	-
All industries	-6.8	-2.4	3.3	-

Small Enterprises

Table: Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	1.5	+1.0	-9.4	-
Nonmanufacturing	-1.4	+2.6	-13.2	-
All industries	-0.3	+2.0	-11.7	-

All Enterprises

Table: Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	4.1	-2.6	2.4	-
Nonmanufacturing	1.9	+0.7	-2.0	-
All industries	2.7	-0.5	-0.4	-

Reference

Table: Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies^**	-	-	-	-

* Excludes software and R&D investment.
** Figures will be released from the June 2020 Survey.

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses

Large Enterprises

Table: Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	5.4	-1.6	2.5	-
Nonmanufacturing	6.9	+0.6	1.1	-
All industries	6.1	-0.6	1.9	-

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-6.2	-5.8	8.8	-
Nonmanufacturing	-0.6	-1.2	3.9	-
All industries	-3.0	-3.1	5.9	-

Small Enterprises

Table: Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-1.3	+0.2	-3.6	-
Nonmanufacturing	2.9	+1.1	-9.9	-
All industries	1.2	+0.7	-7.3	-

All Enterprises

Table: Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	3.4	-1.9	2.5	-
Nonmanufacturing	5.1	+0.4	-0.2	-
All industries	4.2	-0.8	1.2	-

Reference

Table: Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies	-	-	-	-

Production Capacity (Manufacturing)

Table: Production Capacity (Manufacturing) DI ("excessive capacity" - "insufficient capacity"), % points
	Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2020 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	2	4	+2	2	-2
Medium-sized Enterprises	0	2	+2	2	0
Small Enterprises	1	3	+2	3	0
All Enterprises	1	3	+2	3	0

Employment Conditions (All industries)

Table: Employment Conditions (All industries) DI ("excessive employment" - "insufficient employment"), % points
	Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2020 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	-21	-20	+1	-18	+2
Medium-sized Enterprises	-31	-28	+3	-29	-1
Small Enterprises	-34	-31	+3	-32	-1
All Enterprises	-31	-28	+3	-29	-1

Financial Position (All industries)

Table: Financial Position (All industries) DI ("easy" - "tight"), % points
	Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	21	18	-3
Medium-sized Enterprises	22	19	-3
Small Enterprises	11	8	-3
All Enterprises	16	13	-3

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)

Table: Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) DI ("accommodative" - "severe"), % points
	Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	23	22	-1
Medium-sized Enterprises	27	23	-4
Small Enterprises	19	18	-1
All Enterprises	23	20	-3

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)

Table: Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
	Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2020 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	-1	-1	0	1	+2
Medium-sized Enterprises	-1	0	+1	2	+2
Small Enterprises	-1	-1	0	2	+3
All Enterprises	-1	-1	0	2	+3

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)

Table: Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) DI ("easy" - "severe"), % points
	Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	32	30	-2

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook

Output Prices

Large Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
		Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	0.0	-0.3	-0.3
	3 years ahead	-0.2	-0.3	-0.1
	5 years ahead	-0.3	-0.3	0.0
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	0.4	0.1	-0.3
	3 years ahead	0.8	0.7	-0.1
	5 years ahead	1.0	1.0	0.0

Small Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
		Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	0.5	0.2	-0.3
	3 years ahead	1.2	1.1	-0.1
	5 years ahead	1.5	1.6	+0.1
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	0.9	0.5	-0.4
	3 years ahead	1.6	1.3	-0.3
	5 years ahead	2.1	1.9	-0.2

All Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
		Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March
All industries	1 year ahead	0.6	0.2	-0.4
	3 years ahead	1.0	0.9	-0.1
	5 years ahead	1.4	1.4	0.0

General Prices

Large Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
		Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	0.5	0.4	-0.1
	3 years ahead	0.7	0.6	-0.1
	5 years ahead	0.7	0.7	0.0
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	0.6	0.3	-0.3
	3 years ahead	0.7	0.6	-0.1
	5 years ahead	0.7	0.6	-0.1

Small Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
		Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	0.9	0.6	-0.3
	3 years ahead	1.0	0.9	-0.1
	5 years ahead	1.2	1.1	-0.1
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	1.0	0.7	-0.3
	3 years ahead	1.1	0.9	-0.2
	5 years ahead	1.2	1.1	-0.1

All Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
		Dec. 2019 Survey	March 2020 Survey	Change between Dec. and March
All industries	1 year ahead	0.8	0.5	-0.3
	3 years ahead	1.0	0.8	-0.2
	5 years ahead	1.1	1.0	-0.1

Overseas Business Activities^*

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
		Enterprises	(Response rate)
Manufacturing		-	-
Manufacturing	Basic materials	-	-
Manufacturing	Processing	-	-
Nonmanufacturing		-	-
All industries		-	-

[Responding Period: ]

Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales

Table: Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	FY 2020 (Forecast)	FY 2019 (Forecast)	FY 2020 (Forecast)	FY 2019 (Forecast)	FY 2020 (Forecast)
	Consolidated Sales		Overseas Sales		Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales
Manufacturing	-	-	-	-	-	-
Nonmanufacturing	-	-	-	-	-	-
All industries	-	-	-	-	-	-

Consolidated Current Profits

Table: Consolidated Current Profits year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	FY 2020 (Forecast)
Manufacturing	-	-
Nonmanufacturing	-	-
All industries	-	-

Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment

Table: Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment year-to-year % change
	FY 2019 (Forecast)	FY 2020 (Forecast)	FY 2019 (Forecast)	FY 2020 (Forecast)	FY 2019 (Forecast)	FY 2020 (Forecast)
	Consolidated Fixed Investment		Overseas Fixed Investment		Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment
Manufacturing	-	-	-	-	-	-
Nonmanufacturing	-	-	-	-	-	-
All industries	-	-	-	-	-	-

Figures will be released from the June 2020 Survey.

Tankan Outline (March 2020)

Number of Sample Enterprises

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses

Business Conditions

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise

Wholesalers' Inventory Level

Change in Output Prices

Change in Input Prices

Sales

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Current Profits

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses*

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Reference

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Reference

Production Capacity (Manufacturing)

Employment Conditions (All industries)

Financial Position (All industries)

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises (Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook

Output Prices

General Prices

Overseas Business Activities*

Number of Sample Enterprises

Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales

Consolidated Current Profits

Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses^*

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook

Overseas Business Activities^*