Tankan Outline (September 2020)
October 1, 2020
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manufacturing | Nonmanufacturing | Total | (Response rate) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 3,944 | 5,593 | 9,537 | ( 99.3%) | |
All Enterprises | of which Large Enterprises | 995 | 897 | 1,892 | ( 98.7%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,026 | 1,652 | 2,678 | ( 99.3%) | |
Small Enterprises | 1,923 | 3,044 | 4,967 | ( 99.5%) |
[Responding Period: August 27 to September 30]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses
June 2020 Survey | Sept. 2020 Survey | ||
---|---|---|---|
FY 2019 | 108.73 | - | |
FY 2019 | 1H | 108.88 | - |
2H | 108.59 | - | |
FY 2020 | 107.87 | 107.34 | |
FY 2020 | 1H | 107.88 | 107.39 |
2H | 107.86 | 107.30 |
June 2020 Survey | Sept. 2020 Survey | ||
---|---|---|---|
FY 2019 | 121.65 | - | |
FY 2019 | 1H | 122.17 | - |
2H | 121.13 | - | |
FY 2020 | 119.74 | 120.42 | |
FY 2020 | 1H | 119.74 | 120.35 |
2H | 119.74 | 120.49 |
Business Conditions
Large Enterprises
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2020 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | ( -27) | ||||
-34 | -27 | +7 | -17 | +10 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( -14) | ||||
-17 | -12 | +5 | -11 | +1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2020 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | ( -41) | ||||
-36 | -34 | +2 | -30 | +4 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( -29) | ||||
-27 | -23 | +4 | -25 | -2 |
Small Enterprises
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2020 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | ( -47) | ||||
-45 | -44 | +1 | -38 | +6 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( -33) | ||||
-26 | -22 | +4 | -27 | -5 |
All Enterprises
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2020 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | ( -34) | ||||
-31 | -28 | +3 | -27 | +1 |
(Notes)
- FY : Fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H : First half (April - September)
2H : Second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2020 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -32 | -28 | +4 | -23 | +5 |
Small Enterprises | -45 | -43 | +2 | -41 | +2 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2020 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -29 | -26 | +3 | -19 | +7 |
Small Enterprises | -42 | -39 | +3 | -34 | +5 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2020 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 25 | 24 | -1 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 28 | 25 | -3 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2020 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 24 | 23 | -1 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 33 | 31 | -2 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2020 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -10 | -8 | +2 | -8 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -8 | -8 | 0 | -9 | -1 |
Change in Input Prices
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2020 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -3 | 2 | +5 | 6 | +4 |
Small Enterprises | 12 | 14 | +2 | 20 | +6 |
Sales
Large Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Revision rate |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -3.2 | - | -6.7 | -4.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | -2.5 | - | -3.9 | -2.5 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Revision rate |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -1.2 | - | -7.8 | -3.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.9 | - | -6.9 | -3.2 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Revision rate |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -2.7 | - | -9.8 | -2.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.3 | - | -9.1 | -1.7 |
All Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Revision rate |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | -1.4 | - | -6.6 | -2.8 |
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and previous survey.
Current Profits
Large Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Revision rate |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -17.5 | - | -27.6 | -12.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | -7.8 | - | -15.3 | -10.1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Revision rate |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -3.1 | - | -36.4 | -12.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | -2.8 | - | -41.1 | -14.2 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Revision rate |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -18.1 | - | -47.5 | -7.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.7 | - | -45.4 | -7.1 |
All Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Revision rate |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | -9.6 | - | -28.5 | -10.8 |
Ratio of Current Profit to Sales
Large Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Changes | FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 7.00 | - | 5.43 | -0.49 |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.18 | - | 5.45 | -0.46 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Changes | FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 5.22 | - | 3.60 | -0.36 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.70 | - | 2.34 | -0.30 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Changes | FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 3.80 | - | 2.21 | -0.13 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.53 | - | 2.12 | -0.12 |
All Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Changes | FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 5.23 | - | 4.01 | -0.35 |
Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses*
Large Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Revision rate |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 4.3 | - | 3.5 | -2.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | -2.0 | - | 0.1 | -1.1 |
All industries | 0.3 | - | 1.4 | -1.8 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Revision rate |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -8.8 | - | -2.9 | -6.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | -1.8 | - | -4.5 | -3.3 |
All industries | -4.5 | - | -3.9 | -4.5 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Revision rate |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -1.2 | - | -12.0 | -1.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.5 | - | -18.4 | +2.1 |
All industries | -0.2 | - | -16.1 | +0.5 |
All Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Revision rate |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 0.9 | - | -0.3 | -3.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | -1.5 | - | -4.1 | -1.0 |
All industries | -0.6 | - | -2.7 | -1.9 |
Reference
FY 2019 |
Revision rate |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies | -0.2 | - | -3.5 | -2.9 |
- * Excludes software and R&D investment.
Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses
Large Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Revision rate |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 3.5 | - | 1.6 | -2.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.8 | - | 1.5 | -0.7 |
All industries | 2.3 | - | 1.6 | -1.5 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Revision rate |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -6.7 | - | 0.0 | -5.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.6 | - | -2.6 | -4.1 |
All industries | -1.9 | - | -1.5 | -4.8 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Revision rate |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -2.6 | - | -9.6 | -1.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.1 | - | -16.9 | 0.0 |
All industries | 1.3 | - | -14.0 | -0.8 |
All Enterprises
FY 2019 |
Revision rate |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1.7 | - | 0.3 | -2.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.5 | - | -2.2 | -1.2 |
All industries | 1.6 | - | -0.9 | -1.8 |
Reference
FY 2019 |
Revision rate |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies | 1.8 | - | -1.0 | -2.3 |
Production Capacity (Manufacturing)
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2020 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 15 | 15 | 0 | 11 | -4 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 14 | 14 | 0 | 13 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 17 | 17 | 0 | 12 | -5 |
All Enterprises | 16 | 16 | 0 | 12 | -4 |
Employment Conditions (All industries)
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2020 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -3 | -2 | +1 | -5 | -3 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -6 | -7 | -1 | -10 | -3 |
Small Enterprises | -7 | -6 | +1 | -12 | -6 |
All Enterprises | -6 | -6 | 0 | -10 | -4 |
Financial Position (All industries)
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 10 | 10 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 7 | 7 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -1 | 2 | +3 |
All Enterprises | 3 | 5 | +2 |
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 16 | 16 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 21 | 21 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 19 | 20 | +1 |
All Enterprises | 19 | 19 | 0 |
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2020 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +2 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -2 | -1 | +1 | 3 | +4 |
Small Enterprises | -6 | -6 | 0 | -1 | +5 |
All Enterprises | -3 | -3 | 0 | 1 | +4 |
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 8 | 15 | +7 |
Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook
Output Prices
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | -0.5 | -0.4 | +0.1 |
3 years ahead | -0.6 | -0.5 | +0.1 | |
5 years ahead | -0.5 | -0.5 | 0.0 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.0 | 0.1 | +0.1 |
3 years ahead | 0.7 | 0.8 | +0.1 | |
5 years ahead | 1.1 | 1.3 | +0.2 |
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | -0.3 | -0.2 | +0.1 |
3 years ahead | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | |
5 years ahead | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.0 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | -0.2 | -0.1 | +0.1 |
3 years ahead | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 | |
5 years ahead | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 1 year ahead | -0.3 | -0.2 | +0.1 |
3 years ahead | 0.5 | 0.6 | +0.1 | |
5 years ahead | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
General Prices
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
3 years ahead | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | |
5 years ahead | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
3 years ahead | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | |
5 years ahead | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
3 years ahead | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | |
5 years ahead | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
3 years ahead | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | |
5 years ahead | 1.0 | 0.9 | -0.1 |
June 2020 Survey |
Sept. 2020 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 1 year ahead | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
3 years ahead | 0.7 | 0.6 | -0.1 | |
5 years ahead | 0.9 | 0.8 | -0.1 |
Overseas Business Activities
Number of Sample Enterprises
Enterprises | (Response rate) | ||
---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 402 | ( 86.8%) | |
Manufacturing | Basic materials | 146 | ( 86.3%) |
Processing | 256 | ( 87.1%) | |
Nonmanufacturing | 200 | ( 84.0%) | |
All industries | 602 | ( 85.9%) |
[Responding Period: August 27 to September 30]
Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales
Consolidated Sales | Overseas Sales | Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY 2019 |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
FY 2019 |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
FY 2019 |
FY 2020 (Forecast) | |
Manufacturing | -3.3 | -9.9 | -4.2 | -8.2 | 50.58 | 51.54 |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.9 | -4.3 | -2.9 | -2.5 | 21.77 | 22.19 |
All industries | -2.2 | -7.4 | -3.8 | -6.7 | 37.64 | 37.92 |
Consolidated Current Profits
FY 2019 |
FY 2020 (Forecast) | |
---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -25.9 | -24.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | -8.6 | -21.5 |
All industries | -18.7 | -23.2 |
Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment
Consolidated Fixed Investment | Overseas Fixed Investment | Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY 2019 |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
FY 2019 |
FY 2020 (Forecast) |
FY 2019 |
FY 2020 (Forecast) | |
Manufacturing | 2.1 | -2.1 | -0.9 | -0.2 | 36.30 | 37.01 |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.7 | -1.5 | -17.5 | -5.2 | 13.72 | 13.21 |
All industries | 4.4 | -1.8 | -5.7 | -1.6 | 24.89 | 24.94 |