Tankan Outline (December 2020)

December 14, 2020
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Tankan Summary

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
		Manufacturing	Nonmanufacturing	Total	(Response rate)
All Enterprises		3,930	5,577	9,507	( 99.5%)
All Enterprises	of which Large Enterprises	992	894	1,886	( 99.0%)
	Medium-sized Enterprises	1,024	1,648	2,672	( 99.4%)
	Small Enterprises	1,914	3,035	4,949	( 99.7%)

[Responding Period: November 11 to December 11]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses

Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/U.S. dollar
		June 2020 Survey	Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey
FY 2019		108.73	-	-
FY 2019	1H	108.88	-	-
FY 2019	2H	108.59	-	-
FY 2020		107.87	107.34	106.79
FY 2020	1H	107.88	107.39	107.03
FY 2020	2H	107.86	107.30	106.55

Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/euro
		June 2020 Survey	Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey
FY 2019		121.65	-	-
FY 2019	1H	122.17	-	-
FY 2019	2H	121.13	-	-
FY 2020		119.74	120.42	121.04
FY 2020	1H	119.74	120.35	120.99
FY 2020	2H	119.74	120.49	121.10

Business Conditions

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2021 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Manufacturing		( -17)
Manufacturing	-27	-10	+17	-8	+2
Nonmanufacturing		( -11)
Nonmanufacturing	-12	-5	+7	-6	-1

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2021 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Manufacturing		( -30)
Manufacturing	-34	-17	+17	-17	0
Nonmanufacturing		( -25)
Nonmanufacturing	-23	-14	+9	-17	-3

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2021 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Manufacturing		( -38)
Manufacturing	-44	-27	+17	-26	+1
Nonmanufacturing		( -27)
Nonmanufacturing	-22	-12	+10	-20	-8

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2021 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
All industries		( -27)
All industries	-28	-15	+13	-18	-3

(Notes)

FY : Fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H : First half (April - September)
2H : Second half (October - March of the following year)
Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services

Table: Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
	Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2021 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	-28	-21	+7	-19	+2
Small Enterprises	-43	-35	+8	-34	+1

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products

Table: Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
	Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2021 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	-26	-17	+9	-16	+1
Small Enterprises	-39	-31	+8	-28	+3

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise

Table: Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
	Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2021 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	24	18	-6	-	-
Small Enterprises	25	20	-5	-	-

Wholesalers' Inventory Level

Table: Wholesalers' Inventory Level DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
	Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2021 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	23	15	-8	-	-
Small Enterprises	31	24	-7	-	-

Change in Output Prices

Table: Change in Output Prices DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
	Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2021 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	-8	-6	+2	-7	-1
Small Enterprises	-8	-5	+3	-5	0

Change in Input Prices

Table: Change in Input Prices DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
	Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2021 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	2	5	+3	11	+6
Small Enterprises	14	16	+2	22	+6

Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-3.2	-	-9.1	-2.6
Nonmanufacturing	-2.5	-	-8.5	-4.8

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-1.2	-	-7.5	+0.3
Nonmanufacturing	1.9	-	-8.1	-1.2

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-2.7	-	-9.4	+0.5
Nonmanufacturing	0.3	-	-8.5	+0.7

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries	-1.4	-	-8.6	-2.1

(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and previous survey.

Current Profits

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-17.5	-	-25.5	+2.9
Nonmanufacturing	-7.8	-	-41.9	-31.5

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-3.1	-	-28.8	+12.0
Nonmanufacturing	-2.8	-	-38.5	+4.5

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-18.1	-	-39.7	+14.9
Nonmanufacturing	0.7	-	-36.9	+15.6

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries	-9.6	-	-35.3	-9.5

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises %, %points
	FY 2019	Changes	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Changes
Manufacturing	7.00	-	5.74	+0.31
Nonmanufacturing	6.18	-	3.92	-1.53

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises %, %points
	FY 2019	Changes	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Changes
Manufacturing	5.22	-	4.02	+0.42
Nonmanufacturing	3.70	-	2.48	+0.14

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises %, %points
	FY 2019	Changes	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Changes
Manufacturing	3.80	-	2.53	+0.32
Nonmanufacturing	3.53	-	2.43	+0.31

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises %, %points
	FY 2019	Changes	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Changes
All industries	5.23	-	3.70	-0.31

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses^*

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	4.3	-	-0.5	-3.9
Nonmanufacturing	-2.0	-	-1.6	-1.7
All industries	0.3	-	-1.2	-2.6

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-8.8	-	-4.5	-1.7
Nonmanufacturing	-1.8	-	-3.3	+1.3
All industries	-4.5	-	-3.7	+0.2

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-1.2	-	-11.3	+0.9
Nonmanufacturing	0.5	-	-15.4	+3.6
All industries	-0.2	-	-13.9	+2.6

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	0.9	-	-3.1	-2.8
Nonmanufacturing	-1.5	-	-4.5	-0.4
All industries	-0.6	-	-3.9	-1.3

Reference

Table: Reference year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies	-0.2	-	-5.0	-1.6

* Excludes software and R&D investment.

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	3.5	-	-1.7	-3.3
Nonmanufacturing	0.8	-	-0.9	-2.3
All industries	2.3	-	-1.3	-2.8

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-6.7	-	-2.1	-2.1
Nonmanufacturing	1.6	-	-1.8	+0.7
All industries	-1.9	-	-1.9	-0.4

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-2.6	-	-9.7	-0.2
Nonmanufacturing	4.1	-	-15.2	+2.1
All industries	1.3	-	-13.0	+1.1

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	1.7	-	-2.6	-2.8
Nonmanufacturing	1.5	-	-3.4	-1.2
All industries	1.6	-	-3.0	-2.1

Reference

Table: Reference year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	Revision rate	FY 2020 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies	1.8	-	-3.2	-2.2

Production Capacity (Manufacturing)

Table: Production Capacity (Manufacturing) DI ("excessive capacity" - "insufficient capacity"), % points
	Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2021 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	15	13	-2	9	-4
Medium-sized Enterprises	14	11	-3	9	-2
Small Enterprises	17	13	-4	8	-5
All Enterprises	16	12	-4	9	-3

Employment Conditions (All industries)

Table: Employment Conditions (All industries) DI ("excessive employment" - "insufficient employment"), % points
	Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2021 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	-2	-4	-2	-7	-3
Medium-sized Enterprises	-7	-10	-3	-12	-2
Small Enterprises	-6	-13	-7	-16	-3
All Enterprises	-6	-10	-4	-13	-3

Financial Position (All industries)

Table: Financial Position (All industries) DI ("easy" - "tight"), % points
	Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	10	11	+1
Medium-sized Enterprises	7	10	+3
Small Enterprises	2	4	+2
All Enterprises	5	7	+2

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)

Table: Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) DI ("accommodative" - "severe"), % points
	Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	16	15	-1
Medium-sized Enterprises	21	20	-1
Small Enterprises	20	19	-1
All Enterprises	19	18	-1

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)

Table: Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
	Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2021 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	2	1	-1	4	+3
Medium-sized Enterprises	-1	-1	0	4	+5
Small Enterprises	-6	-4	+2	2	+6
All Enterprises	-3	-2	+1	3	+5

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)

Table: Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) DI ("easy" - "severe"), % points
	Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	15	20	+5

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook

Output Prices

Large Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
		Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	-0.4	-0.3	+0.1
	3 years ahead	-0.5	-0.5	0.0
	5 years ahead	-0.5	-0.6	-0.1
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	0.1	0.3	+0.2
	3 years ahead	0.8	0.6	-0.2
	5 years ahead	1.3	1.1	-0.2

Small Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
		Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	-0.2	0.0	+0.2
	3 years ahead	0.7	0.8	+0.1
	5 years ahead	1.4	1.7	+0.3
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	-0.1	0.0	+0.1
	3 years ahead	0.9	0.9	0.0
	5 years ahead	1.7	1.7	0.0

All Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
		Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.
All industries	1 year ahead	-0.2	-0.1	+0.1
	3 years ahead	0.6	0.6	0.0
	5 years ahead	1.2	1.3	+0.1

General Prices

Large Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
		Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	0.2	0.2	0.0
	3 years ahead	0.5	0.4	-0.1
	5 years ahead	0.6	0.5	-0.1
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	0.1	0.2	+0.1
	3 years ahead	0.4	0.4	0.0
	5 years ahead	0.6	0.6	0.0

Small Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
		Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	0.3	0.3	0.0
	3 years ahead	0.7	0.7	0.0
	5 years ahead	1.0	1.0	0.0
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	0.4	0.4	0.0
	3 years ahead	0.7	0.8	+0.1
	5 years ahead	0.9	1.0	+0.1

All Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
		Sept. 2020 Survey	Dec. 2020 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.
All industries	1 year ahead	0.3	0.3	0.0
	3 years ahead	0.6	0.7	+0.1
	5 years ahead	0.8	0.9	+0.1

Overseas Business Activities

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
		Enterprises	(Response rate)
Manufacturing		401	( 97.3%)
Manufacturing	Basic materials	145	( 97.9%)
Manufacturing	Processing	256	( 96.9%)
Nonmanufacturing		200	( 90.5%)
All industries		601	( 95.0%)

[Responding Period: November 11 to December 11]

Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales

Table: Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	FY 2020 (Forecast)	FY 2019	FY 2020 (Forecast)	FY 2019	FY 2020 (Forecast)
	Consolidated Sales		Overseas Sales		Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales
Manufacturing	-3.3	-9.9	-4.2	-7.6	50.55	51.87
Nonmanufacturing	-0.9	-6.5	-2.9	-3.2	21.58	22.35
All industries	-2.2	-8.4	-3.8	-6.4	37.53	38.34

Consolidated Current Profits

Table: Consolidated Current Profits year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	FY 2020 (Forecast)
Manufacturing	-25.9	-15.5
Nonmanufacturing	-8.6	-39.2
All industries	-18.7	-26.6

Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment

Table: Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment year-to-year % change
	FY 2019	FY 2020 (Forecast)	FY 2019	FY 2020 (Forecast)	FY 2019	FY 2020 (Forecast)
	Consolidated Fixed Investment		Overseas Fixed Investment		Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment
Manufacturing	2.1	-4.9	-0.9	-4.6	36.20	36.30
Nonmanufacturing	6.7	0.8	-17.5	-1.2	12.47	12.22
All industries	4.4	-2.0	-5.7	-3.8	24.33	23.91

Tankan Outline (December 2020)

Number of Sample Enterprises

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses

Business Conditions

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise

Wholesalers' Inventory Level

Change in Output Prices

Change in Input Prices

Sales

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Current Profits

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses*

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Reference

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Reference

Production Capacity (Manufacturing)

Employment Conditions (All industries)

Financial Position (All industries)

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises (Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook

Output Prices

General Prices

Overseas Business Activities

Number of Sample Enterprises

Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales

Consolidated Current Profits

Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses^*

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook