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Tankan Outline (December 2020)

December 14, 2020
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 3,930 5,577 9,507 ( 99.5%)
All Enterprises of which Large Enterprises 992 894 1,886 ( 99.0%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,024 1,648 2,672 ( 99.4%)
Small Enterprises 1,914 3,035 4,949 ( 99.7%)

[Responding Period: November 11 to December 11]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses

Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/U.S. dollar
  June 2020 Survey Sept. 2020 Survey Dec. 2020 Survey
FY 2019 108.73 - -
FY 2019 1H 108.88 - -
2H 108.59 - -
FY 2020 107.87 107.34 106.79
FY 2020 1H 107.88 107.39 107.03
2H 107.86 107.30 106.55
Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/euro
  June 2020 Survey Sept. 2020 Survey Dec. 2020 Survey
FY 2019 121.65 - -
FY 2019 1H 122.17 - -
2H 121.13 - -
FY 2020 119.74 120.42 121.04
FY 2020 1H 119.74 120.35 120.99
2H 119.74 120.49 121.10

Business Conditions

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Manufacturing   ( -17)      
-27 -10 +17 -8 +2
Nonmanufacturing   ( -11)      
-12 -5 +7 -6 -1

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Manufacturing   ( -30)      
-34 -17 +17 -17 0
Nonmanufacturing   ( -25)      
-23 -14 +9 -17 -3

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Manufacturing   ( -38)      
-44 -27 +17 -26 +1
Nonmanufacturing   ( -27)      
-22 -12 +10 -20 -8

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
All industries   ( -27)      
-28 -15 +13 -18 -3

(Notes)

  1. FY : Fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H : First half (April - September)
    2H : Second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services

Table: Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -28 -21 +7 -19 +2
Small Enterprises -43 -35 +8 -34 +1

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products

Table: Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -26 -17 +9 -16 +1
Small Enterprises -39 -31 +8 -28 +3

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise

Table: Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 24 18 -6 - -
Small Enterprises 25 20 -5 - -

Wholesalers' Inventory Level

Table: Wholesalers' Inventory Level DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 23 15 -8 - -
Small Enterprises 31 24 -7 - -

Change in Output Prices

Table: Change in Output Prices DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -8 -6 +2 -7 -1
Small Enterprises -8 -5 +3 -5 0

Change in Input Prices

Table: Change in Input Prices DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 2 5 +3 11 +6
Small Enterprises 14 16 +2 22 +6

Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -3.2 - -9.1 -2.6
Nonmanufacturing -2.5 - -8.5 -4.8

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -1.2 - -7.5 +0.3
Nonmanufacturing 1.9 - -8.1 -1.2

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -2.7 - -9.4 +0.5
Nonmanufacturing 0.3 - -8.5 +0.7

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries -1.4 - -8.6 -2.1

(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and previous survey.

Current Profits

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -17.5 - -25.5 +2.9
Nonmanufacturing -7.8 - -41.9 -31.5

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -3.1 - -28.8 +12.0
Nonmanufacturing -2.8 - -38.5 +4.5

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -18.1 - -39.7 +14.9
Nonmanufacturing 0.7 - -36.9 +15.6

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries -9.6 - -35.3 -9.5

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2019
Changes FY 2020
(Forecast)
Changes
Manufacturing 7.00 - 5.74 +0.31
Nonmanufacturing 6.18 - 3.92 -1.53

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2019
Changes FY 2020
(Forecast)
Changes
Manufacturing 5.22 - 4.02 +0.42
Nonmanufacturing 3.70 - 2.48 +0.14

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2019
Changes FY 2020
(Forecast)
Changes
Manufacturing 3.80 - 2.53 +0.32
Nonmanufacturing 3.53 - 2.43 +0.31

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2019
Changes FY 2020
(Forecast)
Changes
All industries 5.23 - 3.70 -0.31

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses*

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 4.3 - -0.5 -3.9
Nonmanufacturing -2.0 - -1.6 -1.7
All industries 0.3 - -1.2 -2.6

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -8.8 - -4.5 -1.7
Nonmanufacturing -1.8 - -3.3 +1.3
All industries -4.5 - -3.7 +0.2

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -1.2 - -11.3 +0.9
Nonmanufacturing 0.5 - -15.4 +3.6
All industries -0.2 - -13.9 +2.6

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 0.9 - -3.1 -2.8
Nonmanufacturing -1.5 - -4.5 -0.4
All industries -0.6 - -3.9 -1.3

Reference

Table: Reference year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies -0.2 - -5.0 -1.6
  • * Excludes software and R&D investment.

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 3.5 - -1.7 -3.3
Nonmanufacturing 0.8 - -0.9 -2.3
All industries 2.3 - -1.3 -2.8

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -6.7 - -2.1 -2.1
Nonmanufacturing 1.6 - -1.8 +0.7
All industries -1.9 - -1.9 -0.4

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -2.6 - -9.7 -0.2
Nonmanufacturing 4.1 - -15.2 +2.1
All industries 1.3 - -13.0 +1.1

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 1.7 - -2.6 -2.8
Nonmanufacturing 1.5 - -3.4 -1.2
All industries 1.6 - -3.0 -2.1

Reference

Table: Reference year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
Revision
rate
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies 1.8 - -3.2 -2.2

Production Capacity (Manufacturing)

Table: Production Capacity (Manufacturing) DI ("excessive capacity" - "insufficient capacity"), % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 15 13 -2 9 -4
Medium-sized Enterprises 14 11 -3 9 -2
Small Enterprises 17 13 -4 8 -5
All Enterprises 16 12 -4 9 -3

Employment Conditions (All industries)

Table: Employment Conditions (All industries) DI ("excessive employment" - "insufficient employment"), % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -2 -4 -2 -7 -3
Medium-sized Enterprises -7 -10 -3 -12 -2
Small Enterprises -6 -13 -7 -16 -3
All Enterprises -6 -10 -4 -13 -3

Financial Position (All industries)

Table: Financial Position (All industries) DI ("easy" - "tight"), % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 10 11 +1
Medium-sized Enterprises 7 10 +3
Small Enterprises 2 4 +2
All Enterprises 5 7 +2

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)

Table: Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) DI ("accommodative" - "severe"), % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 16 15 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 21 20 -1
Small Enterprises 20 19 -1
All Enterprises 19 18 -1

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)

Table: Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 2 1 -1 4 +3
Medium-sized Enterprises -1 -1 0 4 +5
Small Enterprises -6 -4 +2 2 +6
All Enterprises -3 -2 +1 3 +5

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)

Table: Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) DI ("easy" - "severe"), % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 15 20 +5

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook

Output Prices

Large Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Manufacturing 1 year ahead -0.4 -0.3 +0.1
3 years ahead -0.5 -0.5 0.0
5 years ahead -0.5 -0.6 -0.1
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 0.1 0.3 +0.2
3 years ahead 0.8 0.6 -0.2
5 years ahead 1.3 1.1 -0.2
Small Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Manufacturing 1 year ahead -0.2 0.0 +0.2
3 years ahead 0.7 0.8 +0.1
5 years ahead 1.4 1.7 +0.3
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead -0.1 0.0 +0.1
3 years ahead 0.9 0.9 0.0
5 years ahead 1.7 1.7 0.0
All Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
All industries 1 year ahead -0.2 -0.1 +0.1
3 years ahead 0.6 0.6 0.0
5 years ahead 1.2 1.3 +0.1

General Prices

Large Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 0.2 0.2 0.0
3 years ahead 0.5 0.4 -0.1
5 years ahead 0.6 0.5 -0.1
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 0.1 0.2 +0.1
3 years ahead 0.4 0.4 0.0
5 years ahead 0.6 0.6 0.0
Small Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 0.3 0.3 0.0
3 years ahead 0.7 0.7 0.0
5 years ahead 1.0 1.0 0.0
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 0.4 0.4 0.0
3 years ahead 0.7 0.8 +0.1
5 years ahead 0.9 1.0 +0.1
All Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
  Sept. 2020
Survey
Dec. 2020
Survey
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
All industries 1 year ahead 0.3 0.3 0.0
3 years ahead 0.6 0.7 +0.1
5 years ahead 0.8 0.9 +0.1

Overseas Business Activities

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
  Enterprises (Response rate)
Manufacturing 401 ( 97.3%)
Manufacturing Basic materials 145 ( 97.9%)
Processing 256 ( 96.9%)
Nonmanufacturing 200 ( 90.5%)
All industries 601 ( 95.0%)

[Responding Period: November 11 to December 11]

Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales

Table: Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales year-to-year % change
  Consolidated Sales Overseas Sales Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales
FY 2019
FY 2020
(Forecast)
FY 2019
FY 2020
(Forecast)
FY 2019
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Manufacturing -3.3 -9.9 -4.2 -7.6 50.55 51.87
Nonmanufacturing -0.9 -6.5 -2.9 -3.2 21.58 22.35
All industries -2.2 -8.4 -3.8 -6.4 37.53 38.34

Consolidated Current Profits

Table: Consolidated Current Profits year-to-year % change
  FY 2019
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Manufacturing -25.9 -15.5
Nonmanufacturing -8.6 -39.2
All industries -18.7 -26.6

Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment

Table: Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment year-to-year % change
  Consolidated Fixed Investment Overseas Fixed Investment Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment
FY 2019
FY 2020
(Forecast)
FY 2019
FY 2020
(Forecast)
FY 2019
FY 2020
(Forecast)
Manufacturing 2.1 -4.9 -0.9 -4.6 36.20 36.30
Nonmanufacturing 6.7 0.8 -17.5 -1.2 12.47 12.22
All industries 4.4 -2.0 -5.7 -3.8 24.33 23.91