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Tankan Outline (June 2021)

July 1, 2021
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 3,888 5,519 9,407 ( 99.2%)
All Enterprises of which Large Enterprises 986 886 1,872 ( 99.0%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,013 1,628 2,641 ( 99.1%)
Small Enterprises 1,889 3,005 4,894 ( 99.4%)

[Responding Period: May 27 to June 30]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses

Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/U.S. dollar
  March 2021 Survey June 2021 Survey
FY 2020 106.66 106.82
FY 2020 1H 107.00 107.04
2H 106.32 106.61
FY 2021 106.07 106.71
FY 2021 1H 106.04 106.70
2H 106.10 106.71
Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/euro
  March 2021 Survey June 2021 Survey
FY 2020 121.76 122.58
FY 2020 1H 121.06 121.25
2H 122.47 123.90
FY 2021 123.10 125.27
FY 2021 1H 123.09 125.28
2H 123.11 125.26

Business Conditions

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Manufacturing   ( 4)      
5 14 +9 13 -1
Nonmanufacturing   ( -1)      
-1 1 +2 3 +2

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Manufacturing   ( -6)      
-2 5 +7 -1 -6
Nonmanufacturing   ( -12)      
-11 -8 +3 -8 0

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Manufacturing   ( -12)      
-13 -7 +6 -6 +1
Nonmanufacturing   ( -16)      
-11 -9 +2 -12 -3

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
All industries   ( -10)      
-8 -3 +5 -5 -2

(Notes)

  1. FY : Fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H : First half (April - September)
    2H : Second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services

Table: Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -13 -5 +8 -4 +1
Small Enterprises -26 -21 +5 -21 0

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products

Table: Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -6 3 +9 2 -1
Small Enterprises -18 -9 +9 -10 -1

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise

Table: Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 10 6 -4 - -
Small Enterprises 13 10 -3 - -

Wholesalers' Inventory Level

Table: Wholesalers' Inventory Level DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 8 4 -4 - -
Small Enterprises 16 8 -8 - -

Change in Output Prices

Table: Change in Output Prices DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -2 4 +6 5 +1
Small Enterprises 0 5 +5 8 +3

Change in Input Prices

Table: Change in Input Prices DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 15 29 +14 27 -2
Small Enterprises 29 43 +14 45 +2

Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
Revision
rate
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -7.8 +0.5 6.0 +3.9
Nonmanufacturing -9.0 -0.3 0.4 -1.6

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
Revision
rate
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -6.4 +0.6 5.9 +2.2
Nonmanufacturing -6.9 +1.0 2.8 +0.9

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
Revision
rate
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -7.7 +1.0 4.0 +1.6
Nonmanufacturing -7.0 +1.0 1.7 +0.7

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
Revision
rate
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries -7.8 +0.5 2.8 +0.9

(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and previous survey.

Current Profits

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
Revision
rate
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -1.4 +19.4 4.0 +22.0
Nonmanufacturing -37.9 +7.6 20.0 +22.3

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
Revision
rate
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -11.5 +9.9 5.0 +9.5
Nonmanufacturing -23.9 +12.8 10.3 +6.4

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
Revision
rate
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -10.2 +20.5 10.2 +10.0
Nonmanufacturing -16.1 +20.0 0.8 -1.5

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
Revision
rate
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries -20.1 +14.7 9.1 +15.2

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2020
Changes FY 2021
(Forecast)
Changes
Manufacturing 7.48 +1.18 7.35 +1.10
Nonmanufacturing 4.22 +0.31 5.04 +0.98

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2020
Changes FY 2021
(Forecast)
Changes
Manufacturing 4.93 +0.41 4.89 +0.32
Nonmanufacturing 3.03 +0.32 3.25 +0.17

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2020
Changes FY 2021
(Forecast)
Changes
Manufacturing 3.70 +0.60 3.92 +0.30
Nonmanufacturing 3.18 +0.50 3.15 -0.07

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2020
Changes FY 2021
(Forecast)
Changes
All industries 4.53 +0.56 4.81 +0.60

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses*

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
Revision
rate
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -8.8 -5.9 13.3 +3.4
Nonmanufacturing -8.1 -3.9 7.4 +0.3
All industries -8.3 -4.7 9.6 +1.5

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
Revision
rate
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -12.5 -4.4 14.0 +2.4
Nonmanufacturing -6.8 -2.8 -2.1 +4.6
All industries -8.9 -3.4 3.6 +3.8

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
Revision
rate
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -12.4 +0.8 2.3 +4.2
Nonmanufacturing -6.3 +4.1 0.2 +13.3
All industries -8.5 +2.9 0.9 +9.9

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
Revision
rate
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -10.0 -4.6 11.5 +3.4
Nonmanufacturing -7.5 -2.4 4.5 +3.1
All industries -8.5 -3.2 7.1 +3.2

Reference

Table: Reference year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
Revision
rate
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies -9.7 -3.2 6.3 +3.2
  • * Excludes software and R&D investment.

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
Revision
rate
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -6.9 -3.5 10.3 +3.5
Nonmanufacturing -10.8 -6.5 10.4 -0.6
All industries -8.6 -4.9 10.4 +1.7

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
Revision
rate
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -9.4 -3.8 15.1 +3.2
Nonmanufacturing -4.1 -0.4 2.8 +5.7
All industries -6.3 -1.8 7.6 +4.6

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
Revision
rate
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -11.5 +0.7 6.7 +3.7
Nonmanufacturing -8.9 +2.7 3.6 +12.9
All industries -10.0 +1.9 4.8 +9.0

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
Revision
rate
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -7.7 -3.2 10.4 +3.5
Nonmanufacturing -9.4 -4.1 8.0 +2.4
All industries -8.5 -3.6 9.3 +3.0

Reference

Table: Reference year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
Revision
rate
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies -8.8 -3.5 9.2 +3.1

Production Capacity (Manufacturing)

Table: Production Capacity (Manufacturing) DI ("excessive capacity" - "insufficient capacity"), % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 6 1 -5 1 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 7 2 -5 1 -1
Small Enterprises 8 5 -3 2 -3
All Enterprises 7 3 -4 2 -1

Employment Conditions (All industries)

Table: Employment Conditions (All industries) DI ("excessive employment" - "insufficient employment"), % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -5 -7 -2 -8 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises -11 -14 -3 -17 -3
Small Enterprises -15 -16 -1 -21 -5
All Enterprises -12 -14 -2 -17 -3

Financial Position (All industries)

Table: Financial Position (All industries) DI ("easy" - "tight"), % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 14 15 +1
Medium-sized Enterprises 11 14 +3
Small Enterprises 6 8 +2
All Enterprises 9 11 +2

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)

Table: Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) DI ("accommodative" - "severe"), % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 16 16 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 21 21 0
Small Enterprises 19 19 0
All Enterprises 18 18 0

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)

Table: Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2021
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 3 2 -1 5 +3
Medium-sized Enterprises 1 0 -1 5 +5
Small Enterprises -2 -1 +1 4 +5
All Enterprises -1 0 +1 5 +5

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)

Table: Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) DI ("easy" - "severe"), % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 24 24 0

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook

Output Prices

Large Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Manufacturing 1 year ahead -0.1 0.2 +0.3
3 years ahead -0.3 -0.1 +0.2
5 years ahead -0.4 0.1 +0.5
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 0.2 0.4 +0.2
3 years ahead 0.9 1.0 +0.1
5 years ahead 1.3 1.4 +0.1
Small Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 0.3 0.8 +0.5
3 years ahead 1.3 1.6 +0.3
5 years ahead 1.9 2.0 +0.1
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 0.2 0.5 +0.3
3 years ahead 1.1 1.4 +0.3
5 years ahead 2.0 2.1 +0.1
All Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
All industries 1 year ahead 0.2 0.5 +0.3
3 years ahead 0.9 1.1 +0.2
5 years ahead 1.5 1.7 +0.2

General Prices

Large Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 0.3 0.4 +0.1
3 years ahead 0.5 0.6 +0.1
5 years ahead 0.6 0.7 +0.1
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 0.2 0.3 +0.1
3 years ahead 0.4 0.5 +0.1
5 years ahead 0.6 0.6 0.0
Small Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 0.5 0.8 +0.3
3 years ahead 0.9 1.1 +0.2
5 years ahead 1.1 1.2 +0.1
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 0.5 0.6 +0.1
3 years ahead 0.8 1.0 +0.2
5 years ahead 1.1 1.2 +0.1
All Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
  March 2021
Survey
June 2021
Survey
Change
between
March and
June
All industries 1 year ahead 0.4 0.6 +0.2
3 years ahead 0.8 0.9 +0.1
5 years ahead 1.0 1.1 +0.1

Overseas Business Activities

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
  Enterprises (Response rate)
Manufacturing 399 ( 97.0%)
Manufacturing Basic materials 145 ( 98.6%)
Processing 254 ( 96.1%)
Nonmanufacturing 197 ( 89.3%)
All industries 596 ( 94.5%)

[Responding Period: May 27 to June 30]

Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales

Table: Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales year-to-year % change
  Consolidated Sales Overseas Sales Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales
FY 2020
FY 2021
(Forecast)
FY 2020
FY 2021
(Forecast)
FY 2020
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Manufacturing -7.5 8.6 -6.8 7.3 51.00 50.39
Nonmanufacturing -8.1 2.1 -12.0 7.8 19.73 20.83
All industries -7.8 5.7 -8.1 7.4 37.08 37.67

Consolidated Current Profits

Table: Consolidated Current Profits year-to-year % change
  FY 2020
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Manufacturing 13.0 15.3
Nonmanufacturing -32.9 25.5
All industries -8.6 18.8

Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment

Table: Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment year-to-year % change
  Consolidated Fixed Investment Overseas Fixed Investment Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment
FY 2020
FY 2021
(Forecast)
FY 2020
FY 2021
(Forecast)
FY 2020
FY 2021
(Forecast)
Manufacturing -11.6 12.3 -12.9 13.7 35.81 36.26
Nonmanufacturing -6.4 3.2 -14.2 21.0 12.06 14.14
All industries -9.0 7.6 -13.3 15.7 23.59 25.35