Tankan Outline (September 2021)
October 1, 2021
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manufacturing | Nonmanufacturing | Total | (Response rate) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 3,872 | 5,488 | 9,360 | ( 99.3%) | |
All Enterprises | of which Large Enterprises | 984 | 884 | 1,868 | ( 98.9%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,008 | 1,619 | 2,627 | ( 99.4%) | |
Small Enterprises | 1,880 | 2,985 | 4,865 | ( 99.5%) |
[Responding Period: August 26 to September 30]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses
June 2021 Survey | Sept. 2021 Survey | ||
---|---|---|---|
FY 2020 | 106.82 | - | |
FY 2020 | 1H | 107.04 | - |
2H | 106.61 | - | |
FY 2021 | 106.71 | 107.64 | |
FY 2021 | 1H | 106.70 | 107.64 |
2H | 106.71 | 107.64 |
June 2021 Survey | Sept. 2021 Survey | ||
---|---|---|---|
FY 2020 | 122.58 | - | |
FY 2020 | 1H | 121.25 | - |
2H | 123.90 | - | |
FY 2021 | 125.27 | 126.50 | |
FY 2021 | 1H | 125.28 | 126.67 |
2H | 125.26 | 126.33 |
Business Conditions
Large Enterprises
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | ( 13) | ||||
14 | 18 | +4 | 14 | -4 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 3) | ||||
1 | 2 | +1 | 3 | +1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | ( -1) | ||||
5 | 6 | +1 | 3 | -3 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( -8) | ||||
-8 | -6 | +2 | -7 | -1 |
Small Enterprises
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | ( -6) | ||||
-7 | -3 | +4 | -4 | -1 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( -12) | ||||
-9 | -10 | -1 | -13 | -3 |
All Enterprises
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | ( -5) | ||||
-3 | -2 | +1 | -5 | -3 |
(Notes)
- FY : Fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H : First half (April - September)
2H : Second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -5 | -2 | +3 | -3 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -21 | -17 | +4 | -16 | +1 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 3 | 7 | +4 | 4 | -3 |
Small Enterprises | -9 | -7 | +2 | -6 | +1 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 6 | 3 | -3 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 10 | 11 | +1 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 4 | 0 | -4 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 8 | 7 | -1 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 4 | 10 | +6 | 10 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 5 | 9 | +4 | 14 | +5 |
Change in Input Prices
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 29 | 37 | +8 | 34 | -3 |
Small Enterprises | 43 | 50 | +7 | 51 | +1 |
Sales
Large Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -7.8 | - | 7.6 | +1.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | -9.0 | - | 0.3 | -0.1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -6.4 | - | 7.1 | +1.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | -6.9 | - | 2.5 | -0.3 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -7.7 | - | 5.4 | +1.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | -7.0 | - | 1.7 | 0.0 |
All Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | -7.8 | - | 3.2 | +0.4 |
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and previous survey.
Current Profits
Large Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -1.4 | - | 12.7 | +8.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | -37.9 | - | 23.1 | +2.6 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -11.5 | - | 14.2 | +8.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | -23.9 | - | 12.8 | +2.2 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -10.2 | - | 23.4 | +12.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | -16.1 | - | 4.0 | +3.2 |
All Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | -20.1 | - | 15.0 | +5.4 |
Ratio of Current Profit to Sales
Large Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Changes | FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 7.48 | - | 7.84 | +0.49 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.22 | - | 5.17 | +0.13 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Changes | FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 4.93 | - | 5.26 | +0.37 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.03 | - | 3.33 | +0.08 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Changes | FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 3.70 | - | 4.33 | +0.41 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.18 | - | 3.25 | +0.10 |
All Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Changes | FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 4.53 | - | 5.05 | +0.24 |
Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses*
Large Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -8.8 | - | 13.3 | 0.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | -8.1 | - | 8.2 | +0.7 |
All industries | -8.3 | - | 10.1 | +0.4 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -12.5 | - | 12.8 | -1.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | -6.8 | - | -2.8 | -0.7 |
All industries | -8.9 | - | 2.7 | -0.8 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -12.4 | - | 6.4 | +4.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | -6.3 | - | 3.8 | +3.6 |
All industries | -8.5 | - | 4.7 | +3.7 |
All Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -10.0 | - | 12.0 | +0.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | -7.5 | - | 5.5 | +1.0 |
All industries | -8.5 | - | 7.9 | +0.8 |
Reference
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies | -9.7 | - | 7.2 | +0.8 |
- * Excludes software and R&D investment.
Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses
Large Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -6.9 | - | 9.5 | -0.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | -10.8 | - | 10.7 | +0.3 |
All industries | -8.6 | - | 10.0 | -0.3 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -9.4 | - | 13.9 | -1.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | -4.1 | - | 1.8 | -1.0 |
All industries | -6.3 | - | 6.5 | -1.0 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -11.5 | - | 10.8 | +3.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | -8.9 | - | 6.1 | +2.5 |
All industries | -10.0 | - | 7.9 | +3.0 |
All Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -7.7 | - | 10.1 | -0.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | -9.4 | - | 8.4 | +0.4 |
All industries | -8.5 | - | 9.3 | 0.0 |
Reference
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies | -8.8 | - | 9.2 | 0.0 |
Production Capacity (Manufacturing)
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | -3 |
Small Enterprises | 5 | 3 | -2 | 1 | -2 |
All Enterprises | 3 | 2 | -1 | 1 | -1 |
Employment Conditions (All industries)
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -7 | -8 | -1 | -10 | -2 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -14 | -16 | -2 | -19 | -3 |
Small Enterprises | -16 | -20 | -4 | -24 | -4 |
All Enterprises | -14 | -17 | -3 | -20 | -3 |
Financial Position (All industries)
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 15 | 16 | +1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 14 | 13 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 8 | 9 | +1 |
All Enterprises | 11 | 11 | 0 |
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 16 | 17 | +1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 21 | 20 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 19 | 18 | -1 |
All Enterprises | 18 | 18 | 0 |
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2021 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 2 | 1 | -1 | 4 | +3 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +4 |
Small Enterprises | -1 | 0 | +1 | 5 | +5 |
All Enterprises | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +4 |
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 24 | 28 | +4 |
Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook
Output Prices
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.2 | 0.5 | +0.3 |
3 years ahead | -0.1 | 0.1 | +0.2 | |
5 years ahead | 0.1 | 0.2 | +0.1 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.4 | 0.5 | +0.1 |
3 years ahead | 1.0 | 1.1 | +0.1 | |
5 years ahead | 1.4 | 1.6 | +0.2 |
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.8 | 1.2 | +0.4 |
3 years ahead | 1.6 | 1.9 | +0.3 | |
5 years ahead | 2.0 | 2.3 | +0.3 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.5 | 0.7 | +0.2 |
3 years ahead | 1.4 | 1.6 | +0.2 | |
5 years ahead | 2.1 | 2.4 | +0.3 |
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 1 year ahead | 0.5 | 0.7 | +0.2 |
3 years ahead | 1.1 | 1.3 | +0.2 | |
5 years ahead | 1.7 | 1.9 | +0.2 |
General Prices
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.4 | 0.5 | +0.1 |
3 years ahead | 0.6 | 0.7 | +0.1 | |
5 years ahead | 0.7 | 0.8 | +0.1 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
3 years ahead | 0.5 | 0.6 | +0.1 | |
5 years ahead | 0.6 | 0.7 | +0.1 |
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.8 | 0.9 | +0.1 |
3 years ahead | 1.1 | 1.2 | +0.1 | |
5 years ahead | 1.2 | 1.4 | +0.2 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.6 | 0.8 | +0.2 |
3 years ahead | 1.0 | 1.1 | +0.1 | |
5 years ahead | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
June 2021 Survey |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 1 year ahead | 0.6 | 0.7 | +0.1 |
3 years ahead | 0.9 | 1.0 | +0.1 | |
5 years ahead | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
Overseas Business Activities
Number of Sample Enterprises
Enterprises | (Response rate) | ||
---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 397 | ( 98.2%) | |
Manufacturing | Basic materials | 144 | ( 98.6%) |
Processing | 253 | ( 98.0%) | |
Nonmanufacturing | 197 | ( 91.4%) | |
All industries | 594 | ( 96.0%) |
[Responding Period: August 26 to September 30]
Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales
Consolidated Sales | Overseas Sales | Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY 2020 |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
FY 2020 |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
FY 2020 |
FY 2021 (Forecast) | |
Manufacturing | -7.5 | 10.9 | -6.8 | 9.9 | 51.00 | 50.52 |
Nonmanufacturing | -8.1 | 2.6 | -12.0 | 7.8 | 20.20 | 21.23 |
All industries | -7.8 | 7.2 | -8.1 | 9.4 | 37.29 | 38.04 |
Consolidated Current Profits
FY 2020 |
FY 2021 (Forecast) | |
---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 13.0 | 22.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | -32.9 | 38.6 |
All industries | -8.6 | 27.8 |
Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment
Consolidated Fixed Investment | Overseas Fixed Investment | Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY 2020 |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
FY 2020 |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
FY 2020 |
FY 2021 (Forecast) | |
Manufacturing | -11.6 | 13.6 | -12.9 | 14.5 | 35.33 | 35.59 |
Nonmanufacturing | -6.4 | 3.9 | -14.2 | 22.3 | 12.03 | 14.16 |
All industries | -9.0 | 8.6 | -13.3 | 16.5 | 23.38 | 25.07 |