Tankan Outline (December 2021)
December 13, 2021
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manufacturing | Nonmanufacturing | Total | (Response rate) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 3,859 | 5,469 | 9,328 | ( 99.3%) | |
All Enterprises | of which Large Enterprises | 982 | 884 | 1,866 | ( 98.7%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,005 | 1,612 | 2,617 | ( 99.2%) | |
Small Enterprises | 1,872 | 2,973 | 4,845 | ( 99.6%) |
[Responding Period: November 10 to December 10]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses
June 2021 Survey | Sept. 2021 Survey | Dec. 2021 Survey | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
FY 2020 | 106.82 | - | - | |
FY 2020 | 1H | 107.04 | - | - |
2H | 106.61 | - | - | |
FY 2021 | 106.71 | 107.64 | 109.09 | |
FY 2021 | 1H | 106.70 | 107.64 | 108.82 |
2H | 106.71 | 107.64 | 109.35 |
June 2021 Survey | Sept. 2021 Survey | Dec. 2021 Survey | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
FY 2020 | 122.58 | - | - | |
FY 2020 | 1H | 121.25 | - | - |
2H | 123.90 | - | - | |
FY 2021 | 125.27 | 126.50 | 127.71 | |
FY 2021 | 1H | 125.28 | 126.67 | 127.93 |
2H | 125.26 | 126.33 | 127.49 |
Business Conditions
Large Enterprises
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2022 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | ( 14) | ||||
18 | 18 | 0 | 13 | -5 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 3) | ||||
2 | 9 | +7 | 8 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2022 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | ( 3) | ||||
6 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -1 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( -7) | ||||
-6 | 1 | +7 | 0 | -1 |
Small Enterprises
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2022 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | ( -4) | ||||
-3 | -1 | +2 | -1 | 0 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( -13) | ||||
-10 | -4 | +6 | -6 | -2 |
All Enterprises
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2022 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | ( -5) | ||||
-2 | 2 | +4 | 0 | -2 |
(Notes)
- FY : Fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H : First half (April - September)
2H : Second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2022 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -2 | 2 | +4 | 1 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -17 | -12 | +5 | -13 | -1 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2022 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 7 | 8 | +1 | 7 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -7 | -3 | +4 | -5 | -2 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2022 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 3 | 5 | +2 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 11 | 9 | -2 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2022 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 0 | -1 | -1 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 7 | 2 | -5 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2022 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 10 | 16 | +6 | 17 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | 9 | 16 | +7 | 22 | +6 |
Change in Input Prices
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2022 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 37 | 49 | +12 | 43 | -6 |
Small Enterprises | 50 | 60 | +10 | 61 | +1 |
Sales
Large Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -7.8 | - | 10.1 | +2.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | -9.0 | - | 0.3 | -0.1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -6.4 | - | 7.6 | +0.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | -6.9 | - | 1.7 | -0.8 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -7.7 | - | 5.9 | +0.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | -7.0 | - | 2.6 | +0.9 |
All Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | -7.8 | - | 3.8 | +0.6 |
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and previous survey.
Current Profits
Large Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -1.4 | - | 35.0 | +19.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | -37.9 | - | 34.2 | +9.0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -11.5 | - | 20.1 | +5.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | -23.9 | - | 15.8 | +2.7 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -10.2 | - | 28.7 | +4.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | -16.1 | - | 10.6 | +6.3 |
All Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | -20.1 | - | 28.0 | +11.3 |
Ratio of Current Profit to Sales
Large Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Changes | FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 7.48 | - | 9.18 | +1.34 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.22 | - | 5.64 | +0.47 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Changes | FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 4.93 | - | 5.51 | +0.25 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.03 | - | 3.45 | +0.12 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Changes | FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 3.70 | - | 4.50 | +0.17 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.18 | - | 3.43 | +0.18 |
All Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Changes | FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 4.53 | - | 5.59 | +0.54 |
Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses*
Large Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -8.8 | - | 12.4 | -0.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | -8.1 | - | 7.5 | -0.6 |
All industries | -8.3 | - | 9.3 | -0.7 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -12.5 | - | 9.8 | -2.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | -6.8 | - | 2.6 | +5.5 |
All industries | -8.9 | - | 5.1 | +2.4 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -12.4 | - | 10.3 | +3.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | -6.3 | - | 2.3 | -1.5 |
All industries | -8.5 | - | 5.1 | +0.4 |
All Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -10.0 | - | 11.6 | -0.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | -7.5 | - | 5.7 | +0.2 |
All industries | -8.5 | - | 7.9 | 0.0 |
Reference
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies | -9.7 | - | 7.3 | +0.1 |
- * Excludes software and R&D investment.
Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses
Large Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -6.9 | - | 9.0 | -0.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | -10.8 | - | 9.9 | -0.8 |
All industries | -8.6 | - | 9.4 | -0.6 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -9.4 | - | 10.5 | -3.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | -4.1 | - | 1.9 | +0.1 |
All industries | -6.3 | - | 5.3 | -1.2 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -11.5 | - | 12.6 | +1.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | -8.9 | - | 3.1 | -2.9 |
All industries | -10.0 | - | 6.8 | -1.0 |
All Enterprises
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -7.7 | - | 9.5 | -0.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | -9.4 | - | 7.4 | -1.0 |
All industries | -8.5 | - | 8.5 | -0.8 |
Reference
FY 2020 |
Revision rate |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies | -8.8 | - | 8.4 | -0.7 |
Production Capacity (Manufacturing)
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2022 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 3 | 2 | -1 | -1 | -3 |
All Enterprises | 2 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -2 |
Employment Conditions (All industries)
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2022 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -8 | -12 | -4 | -14 | -2 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -16 | -21 | -5 | -23 | -2 |
Small Enterprises | -20 | -26 | -6 | -30 | -4 |
All Enterprises | -17 | -21 | -4 | -24 | -3 |
Financial Position (All industries)
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 16 | 16 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 13 | 14 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | 9 | 8 | -1 |
All Enterprises | 11 | 12 | +1 |
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 17 | 17 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 20 | 21 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | 18 | 18 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 18 | 18 | 0 |
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2022 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +4 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +5 |
Small Enterprises | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +5 |
All Enterprises | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +5 |
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 28 | 27 | -1 |
Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook
Output Prices
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.5 | 1.1 | +0.6 |
3 years ahead | 0.1 | 0.6 | +0.5 | |
5 years ahead | 0.2 | 0.7 | +0.5 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.5 | 0.7 | +0.2 |
3 years ahead | 1.1 | 1.2 | +0.1 | |
5 years ahead | 1.6 | 1.7 | +0.1 |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 1.2 | 1.9 | +0.7 |
3 years ahead | 1.9 | 2.5 | +0.6 | |
5 years ahead | 2.3 | 2.9 | +0.6 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.7 | 1.2 | +0.5 |
3 years ahead | 1.6 | 1.9 | +0.3 | |
5 years ahead | 2.4 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 1 year ahead | 0.7 | 1.2 | +0.5 |
3 years ahead | 1.3 | 1.7 | +0.4 | |
5 years ahead | 1.9 | 2.3 | +0.4 |
General Prices
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.5 | 0.8 | +0.3 |
3 years ahead | 0.7 | 0.9 | +0.2 | |
5 years ahead | 0.8 | 0.9 | +0.1 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.3 | 0.6 | +0.3 |
3 years ahead | 0.6 | 0.7 | +0.1 | |
5 years ahead | 0.7 | 0.8 | +0.1 |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.9 | 1.5 | +0.6 |
3 years ahead | 1.2 | 1.5 | +0.3 | |
5 years ahead | 1.4 | 1.6 | +0.2 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 0.8 | 1.2 | +0.4 |
3 years ahead | 1.1 | 1.4 | +0.3 | |
5 years ahead | 1.2 | 1.4 | +0.2 |
Sept. 2021 Survey |
Dec. 2021 Survey |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 1 year ahead | 0.7 | 1.1 | +0.4 |
3 years ahead | 1.0 | 1.2 | +0.2 | |
5 years ahead | 1.1 | 1.3 | +0.2 |
Overseas Business Activities
Number of Sample Enterprises
Enterprises | (Response rate) | ||
---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 397 | ( 98.0%) | |
Manufacturing | Basic materials | 144 | ( 99.3%) |
Processing | 253 | ( 97.2%) | |
Nonmanufacturing | 197 | ( 90.9%) | |
All industries | 594 | ( 95.6%) |
[Responding Period: November 10 to December 10]
Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales
Consolidated Sales | Overseas Sales | Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY 2020 |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
FY 2020 |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
FY 2020 |
FY 2021 (Forecast) | |
Manufacturing | -7.5 | 11.8 | -6.8 | 10.3 | 50.92 | 50.23 |
Nonmanufacturing | -8.1 | 3.0 | -12.0 | 9.1 | 19.81 | 20.98 |
All industries | -7.8 | 7.9 | -8.1 | 10.0 | 37.07 | 37.80 |
Consolidated Current Profits
FY 2020 |
FY 2021 (Forecast) | |
---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 13.0 | 32.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | -32.9 | 55.2 |
All industries | -8.6 | 40.0 |
Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment
Consolidated Fixed Investment | Overseas Fixed Investment | Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY 2020 |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
FY 2020 |
FY 2021 (Forecast) |
FY 2020 |
FY 2021 (Forecast) | |
Manufacturing | -11.6 | 14.3 | -12.9 | 14.8 | 35.47 | 35.62 |
Nonmanufacturing | -6.4 | 2.7 | -14.2 | 21.1 | 12.03 | 14.19 |
All industries | -9.0 | 8.3 | -13.3 | 16.4 | 23.44 | 25.19 |