Tankan Outline (December 2023)

December 13, 2023
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Tankan Summary

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
		Manufacturing	Nonmanufacturing	Total	(Response rate)
All Enterprises		3,738	5,334	9,072	( 99.3%)
All Enterprises	of which Large Enterprises	956	850	1,806	( 99.1%)
	Medium-sized Enterprises	995	1,536	2,531	( 99.5%)
	Small Enterprises	1,787	2,948	4,735	( 99.3%)

[Responding Period: November 9 to December 12]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses

Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/U.S. dollar
		June 2023 Survey	Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey
FY 2022		131.19	-	-
FY 2022	1H	129.60	-	-
FY 2022	2H	132.79	-	-
FY 2023		132.43	135.75	139.35
FY 2023	1H	132.60	135.62	138.73
FY 2023	2H	132.27	135.88	139.97

Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/euro
		June 2023 Survey	Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey
FY 2022		138.21	-	-
FY 2022	1H	136.53	-	-
FY 2022	2H	139.89	-	-
FY 2023		140.11	144.62	148.80
FY 2023	1H	140.28	144.58	148.57
FY 2023	2H	139.95	144.66	149.03

Business Conditions

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Manufacturing		( 10)
Manufacturing	9	12	+3	8	-4
Nonmanufacturing		( 21)
Nonmanufacturing	27	30	+3	24	-6

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Manufacturing		( 2)
Manufacturing	0	5	+5	4	-1
Nonmanufacturing		( 14)
Nonmanufacturing	19	20	+1	14	-6

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Manufacturing		( -2)
Manufacturing	-5	1	+6	-1	-2
Nonmanufacturing		( 8)
Nonmanufacturing	12	14	+2	7	-7

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
All industries		( 8)
All industries	10	13	+3	8	-5

(Notes)

FY : Fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H : First half (April - September)
2H : Second half (October - March of the following year)
Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services

Table: Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
	Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	-9	-9	0	-8	+1
Small Enterprises	-21	-20	+1	-20	0

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products

Table: Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
	Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	-10	-12	-2	-10	+2
Small Enterprises	-15	-17	-2	-17	0

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise

Table: Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
	Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	21	21	0	-	-
Small Enterprises	19	17	-2	-	-

Wholesalers' Inventory Level

Table: Wholesalers' Inventory Level DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
	Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	14	13	-1	-	-
Small Enterprises	17	16	-1	-	-

Change in Output Prices

Table: Change in Output Prices DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
	Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	32	26	-6	20	-6
Small Enterprises	30	26	-4	28	+2

Change in Input Prices

Table: Change in Input Prices DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
	Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	48	43	-5	38	-5
Small Enterprises	61	56	-5	53	-3

Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	Revision rate	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	11.3	-	3.1	+1.0
Nonmanufacturing	10.1	-	1.5	0.0

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	Revision rate	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	8.0	-	2.0	-0.3
Nonmanufacturing	7.2	-	3.9	+0.7

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	Revision rate	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	6.1	-	2.6	+0.5
Nonmanufacturing	6.0	-	2.3	+1.2

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	Revision rate	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries	8.7	-	2.5	+0.6

(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and previous survey.

Current Profits

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	Revision rate	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	11.7	-	2.4	+7.9
Nonmanufacturing	32.7	-	7.6	+8.4

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	Revision rate	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-3.4	-	0.8	+4.4
Nonmanufacturing	18.0	-	1.4	+2.7

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	Revision rate	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-7.8	-	4.6	+7.3
Nonmanufacturing	8.4	-	1.5	+3.0

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	Revision rate	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries	16.2	-	4.0	+6.8

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises %, %points
	FY 2022	Changes	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Changes
Manufacturing	10.52	-	10.45	+0.67
Nonmanufacturing	7.61	-	8.06	+0.63

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises %, %points
	FY 2022	Changes	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Changes
Manufacturing	5.55	-	5.49	+0.24
Nonmanufacturing	4.11	-	4.01	+0.08

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises %, %points
	FY 2022	Changes	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Changes
Manufacturing	4.24	-	4.32	+0.27
Nonmanufacturing	3.79	-	3.76	+0.07

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises %, %points
	FY 2022	Changes	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Changes
All industries	6.64	-	6.74	+0.39

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses^*

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	Revision rate	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	6.5	-	17.9	-1.7
Nonmanufacturing	14.8	-	11.0	+0.8
All industries	11.7	-	13.5	-0.1

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	Revision rate	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	10.2	-	16.4	+0.2
Nonmanufacturing	2.3	-	10.6	-4.4
All industries	5.2	-	12.8	-2.7

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	Revision rate	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	17.2	-	1.6	+4.7
Nonmanufacturing	-3.0	-	15.8	+0.8
All industries	3.9	-	10.3	+2.2

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	Revision rate	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	9.0	-	14.6	-0.4
Nonmanufacturing	9.3	-	11.7	0.0
All industries	9.2	-	12.8	-0.2

Reference

Table: Reference year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	Revision rate	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies	8.8	-	13.2	-0.1

* Excludes software and R&D investment.

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	Revision rate	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	8.4	-	11.3	-0.9
Nonmanufacturing	8.7	-	13.5	-0.5
All industries	8.5	-	12.2	-0.7

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	Revision rate	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	8.2	-	16.6	+0.1
Nonmanufacturing	5.3	-	11.5	-4.1
All industries	6.5	-	13.7	-2.3

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	Revision rate	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	9.6	-	7.2	+2.1
Nonmanufacturing	-2.9	-	18.6	+2.4
All industries	2.0	-	13.9	+2.3

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	Revision rate	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	8.5	-	11.4	-0.5
Nonmanufacturing	6.2	-	14.0	-0.6
All industries	7.4	-	12.6	-0.6

Reference

Table: Reference year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	Revision rate	FY 2023 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies	7.6	-	12.3	-0.5

Production Capacity (Manufacturing)

Table: Production Capacity (Manufacturing) DI ("excessive capacity" - "insufficient capacity"), % points
	Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	1	2	+1	-1	-3
Medium-sized Enterprises	3	2	-1	-1	-3
Small Enterprises	1	2	+1	-1	-3
All Enterprises	2	2	0	-1	-3

Employment Conditions (All industries)

Table: Employment Conditions (All industries) DI ("excessive employment" - "insufficient employment"), % points
	Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	-24	-25	-1	-27	-2
Medium-sized Enterprises	-34	-36	-2	-39	-3
Small Enterprises	-36	-38	-2	-43	-5
All Enterprises	-33	-35	-2	-38	-3

Financial Position (All industries)

Table: Financial Position (All industries) DI ("easy" - "tight"), % points
	Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	12	13	+1
Medium-sized Enterprises	15	15	0
Small Enterprises	8	7	-1
All Enterprises	11	11	0

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)

Table: Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) DI ("accommodative" - "severe"), % points
	Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	14	15	+1
Medium-sized Enterprises	18	17	-1
Small Enterprises	14	14	0
All Enterprises	16	15	-1

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)

Table: Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
	Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	19	22	+3	29	+7
Medium-sized Enterprises	14	18	+4	28	+10
Small Enterprises	12	14	+2	28	+14
All Enterprises	14	17	+3	28	+11

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)

Table: Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) DI ("easy" - "severe"), % points
	Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	12	14	+2

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook

Output Prices

Large Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
		Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	2.4	2.2	-0.2
	3 years ahead	2.9	2.8	-0.1
	5 years ahead	3.1	3.0	-0.1
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	2.2	2.0	-0.2
	3 years ahead	2.8	2.7	-0.1
	5 years ahead	3.4	3.2	-0.2

Small Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
		Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	3.3	3.1	-0.2
	3 years ahead	4.4	4.4	0.0
	5 years ahead	5.1	4.9	-0.2
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	3.1	2.9	-0.2
	3 years ahead	4.2	4.1	-0.1
	5 years ahead	5.0	4.9	-0.1

All Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
		Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.
All industries	1 year ahead	2.8	2.6	-0.2
	3 years ahead	3.8	3.7	-0.1
	5 years ahead	4.4	4.4	0.0

General Prices

Large Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
		Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	2.1	2.1	0.0
	3 years ahead	1.8	1.8	0.0
	5 years ahead	1.7	1.6	-0.1
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	2.0	2.0	0.0
	3 years ahead	1.6	1.6	0.0
	5 years ahead	1.5	1.4	-0.1

Small Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
		Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	2.8	2.7	-0.1
	3 years ahead	2.4	2.4	0.0
	5 years ahead	2.3	2.3	0.0
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	2.8	2.6	-0.2
	3 years ahead	2.5	2.4	-0.1
	5 years ahead	2.3	2.3	0.0

All Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
		Sept. 2023 Survey	Dec. 2023 Survey	Change between Sept. and Dec.
All industries	1 year ahead	2.5	2.4	-0.1
	3 years ahead	2.2	2.2	0.0
	5 years ahead	2.1	2.1	0.0

Overseas Business Activities

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
		Enterprises	(Response rate)
Manufacturing		395	( 97.7%)
Manufacturing	Basic materials	142	( 97.2%)
Manufacturing	Processing	253	( 98.0%)
Nonmanufacturing		184	( 89.7%)
All industries		579	( 95.2%)

[Responding Period: November 9 to December 12]

Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales

Table: Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	FY 2023 (Forecast)	FY 2022	FY 2023 (Forecast)	FY 2022	FY 2023 (Forecast)
	Consolidated Sales		Overseas Sales		Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales
Manufacturing	15.7	4.5	18.3	1.7	59.93	58.33
Nonmanufacturing	15.7	1.3	25.8	-0.5	28.28	27.78
All industries	15.7	3.1	20.2	1.1	45.74	44.86

Consolidated Current Profits

Table: Consolidated Current Profits year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	FY 2023 (Forecast)
Manufacturing	0.4	6.8
Nonmanufacturing	21.0	-3.6
All industries	8.4	2.2

Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment

Table: Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment year-to-year % change
	FY 2022	FY 2023 (Forecast)	FY 2022	FY 2023 (Forecast)	FY 2022	FY 2023 (Forecast)
	Consolidated Fixed Investment		Overseas Fixed Investment		Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment
Manufacturing	21.1	14.6	22.5	1.5	38.74	34.29
Nonmanufacturing	9.2	6.3	17.9	10.5	17.92	18.61
All industries	14.9	10.4	21.0	4.4	28.16	26.62

Tankan Outline (December 2023)

Number of Sample Enterprises

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses

Business Conditions

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise

Wholesalers' Inventory Level

Change in Output Prices

Change in Input Prices

Sales

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Current Profits

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses*

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Reference

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Reference

Production Capacity (Manufacturing)

Employment Conditions (All industries)

Financial Position (All industries)

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises (Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook

Output Prices

General Prices

Overseas Business Activities

Number of Sample Enterprises

Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales

Consolidated Current Profits

Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses^*

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook