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Tankan Outline (March 2024)

April 1, 2024
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 3,794 5,324 9,118 ( 99.0%)
All Enterprises of which Large Enterprises 917 817 1,734 ( 99.1%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,062 1,532 2,594 ( 98.8%)
Small Enterprises 1,815 2,975 4,790 ( 99.1%)

[Responding Period: February 27 to March 29]

Figures are based on sample enterprises after the March 2024 revision.

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses

Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/U.S. dollar
  Dec. 2023 Survey March 2024 Survey
FY 2023 139.38 140.36
FY 2023 1H 138.75 139.04
2H 140.00 141.68
FY 2024 - 141.42
FY 2024 1H - 141.60
2H - 141.25
Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/euro
  Dec. 2023 Survey March 2024 Survey
FY 2023 148.85 150.24
FY 2023 1H 148.63 148.90
2H 149.07 151.57
FY 2024 - 151.86
FY 2024 1H - 151.99
2H - 151.73

Business Conditions

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2024
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Manufacturing   ( 8)      
13 11 -2 10 -1
Nonmanufacturing   ( 27)      
32 34 +2 27 -7

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2024
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Manufacturing   ( 5)      
6 6 0 5 -1
Nonmanufacturing   ( 15)      
19 20 +1 15 -5

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2024
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Manufacturing   ( 0)      
2 -1 -3 0 +1
Nonmanufacturing   ( 7)      
14 13 -1 8 -5

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2024
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
All industries   ( 8)      
13 12 -1 9 -3

(Notes)

  1. FY : Fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H : First half (April - September)
    2H : Second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services

Table: Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2024
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises -9 -11 -2 -9 +2
Small Enterprises -20 -20 0 -18 +2

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products

Table: Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2024
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises -14 -14 0 -10 +4
Small Enterprises -17 -17 0 -14 +3

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise

Table: Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2024
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 20 24 +4 - -
Small Enterprises 17 18 +1 - -

Wholesalers' Inventory Level

Table: Wholesalers' Inventory Level DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2024
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 14 15 +1 - -
Small Enterprises 16 16 0 - -

Change in Output Prices

Table: Change in Output Prices DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2024
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 27 25 -2 24 -1
Small Enterprises 27 26 -1 33 +7

Change in Input Prices

Table: Change in Input Prices DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2024
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 41 42 +1 41 -1
Small Enterprises 57 56 -1 59 +3

Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 3.4 -0.5 0.8 -
Nonmanufacturing 1.5 +0.3 1.0 -

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 1.9 -0.3 1.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.7 +0.7 1.8 -

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 2.1 -0.1 1.5 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.1 +0.7 0.1 -

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries 2.7 +0.2 1.0 -

(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and previous survey.

Current Profits

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 7.4 +4.3 -4.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 8.7 +2.3 -3.4 -

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 1.5 +3.4 -5.4 -
Nonmanufacturing 5.9 +6.0 -2.5 -

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 2.2 +2.2 0.8 -
Nonmanufacturing 5.2 +3.9 0.1 -

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries 6.9 +3.6 -3.0 -

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Changes FY 2024
(Forecast)
Changes
Manufacturing 11.32 +0.52 10.78 -
Nonmanufacturing 8.17 +0.17 7.81 -

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Changes FY 2024
(Forecast)
Changes
Manufacturing 5.01 +0.18 4.65 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.19 +0.20 4.02 -

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Changes FY 2024
(Forecast)
Changes
Manufacturing 4.29 +0.10 4.26 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.86 +0.12 3.86 -

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Changes FY 2024
(Forecast)
Changes
All industries 6.80 +0.22 6.53 -

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses*

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 14.5 -2.8 8.5 -
Nonmanufacturing 9.8 -0.7 1.5 -
All industries 11.5 -1.5 4.0 -

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 11.8 -3.5 10.8 -
Nonmanufacturing 10.0 +1.9 5.7 -
All industries 10.7 -0.4 7.7 -

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -8.6 -4.7 3.6 -
Nonmanufacturing 18.9 +2.7 -6.9 -
All industries 8.4 +0.2 -3.6 -

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 9.4 -3.3 8.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 11.6 +0.4 0.5 -
All industries 10.7 -1.0 3.3 -

Reference

Table: Reference year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies 10.8 -1.4 3.0 -
  • * Excludes software and R&D investment.

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 9.5 -1.2 4.4 -
Nonmanufacturing 9.5 -3.3 3.8 -
All industries 9.5 -2.1 4.1 -

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 9.9 -3.3 9.8 -
Nonmanufacturing 10.4 +0.3 7.4 -
All industries 10.2 -1.5 8.5 -

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 0.0 -5.0 3.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 23.2 +1.4 0.8 -
All industries 13.7 -1.0 1.6 -

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 8.6 -1.9 5.1 -
Nonmanufacturing 11.9 -1.8 3.9 -
All industries 10.2 -1.9 4.5 -

Reference

Table: Reference year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies 9.9 -2.1 4.9 -

Production Capacity (Manufacturing)

Table: Production Capacity (Manufacturing) DI ("excessive capacity" - "insufficient capacity"), % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2024
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 2 3 +1 1 -2
Medium-sized Enterprises 2 2 0 -1 -3
Small Enterprises 2 1 -1 -3 -4
All Enterprises 2 2 0 -1 -3

Employment Conditions (All industries)

Table: Employment Conditions (All industries) DI ("excessive employment" - "insufficient employment"), % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2024
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises -25 -27 -2 -27 0
Medium-sized Enterprises -36 -37 -1 -40 -3
Small Enterprises -38 -38 0 -43 -5
All Enterprises -35 -36 -1 -39 -3

Financial Position (All industries)

Table: Financial Position (All industries) DI ("easy" - "tight"), % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 14 14 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 14 14 0
Small Enterprises 9 8 -1
All Enterprises 11 11 0

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)

Table: Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) DI ("accommodative" - "severe"), % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 15 14 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 17 18 +1
Small Enterprises 15 14 -1
All Enterprises 15 15 0

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)

Table: Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2024
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 22 22 0 34 +12
Medium-sized Enterprises 18 19 +1 31 +12
Small Enterprises 14 15 +1 30 +15
All Enterprises 17 17 0 31 +14

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)

Table: Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) DI ("easy" - "severe"), % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 14 12 -2

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook

Output Prices

Large Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 2.2 2.2 0.0
3 years ahead 2.8 2.8 0.0
5 years ahead 2.9 3.1 +0.2
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 1.9 2.0 +0.1
3 years ahead 2.6 2.8 +0.2
5 years ahead 3.1 3.2 +0.1
Small Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 3.1 3.4 +0.3
3 years ahead 4.5 4.7 +0.2
5 years ahead 5.1 5.6 +0.5
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 2.9 3.0 +0.1
3 years ahead 4.1 4.2 +0.1
5 years ahead 4.8 5.0 +0.2
All Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
All industries 1 year ahead 2.6 2.7 +0.1
3 years ahead 3.7 4.0 +0.3
5 years ahead 4.4 4.7 +0.3

General Prices

Large Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 2.1 2.1 0.0
3 years ahead 1.8 1.8 0.0
5 years ahead 1.7 1.5 -0.2
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 2.0 2.0 0.0
3 years ahead 1.6 1.8 +0.2
5 years ahead 1.4 1.6 +0.2
Small Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 2.7 2.6 -0.1
3 years ahead 2.4 2.4 0.0
5 years ahead 2.3 2.4 +0.1
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 2.6 2.6 0.0
3 years ahead 2.4 2.4 0.0
5 years ahead 2.3 2.3 0.0
All Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
  Dec. 2023
Survey
March 2024
Survey
Change
between
Dec. and
March
All industries 1 year ahead 2.4 2.4 0.0
3 years ahead 2.2 2.2 0.0
5 years ahead 2.1 2.1 0.0

Overseas Business Activities

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
  Enterprises (Response rate)
Manufacturing 371 ( 44.2%)
Manufacturing Basic materials 132 ( 52.3%)
Processing 239 ( 39.7%)
Nonmanufacturing 201 ( 44.3%)
All industries 572 ( 44.2%)

[Responding Period: February 27 to March 29]

Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales

Table: Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales year-to-year % change
  Consolidated Sales Overseas Sales Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales
FY 2023
(Forecast)
FY 2024
(Forecast)
FY 2023
(Forecast)
FY 2024
(Forecast)
FY 2023
(Forecast)
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Manufacturing 4.9 0.8 2.4 0.5 58.47 58.31
Nonmanufacturing 1.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.6 27.77 27.56
All industries 3.2 0.5 1.6 0.2 44.45 44.32

Consolidated Current Profits

Table: Consolidated Current Profits year-to-year % change
  FY 2023
(Forecast)
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Manufacturing 7.8 1.2
Nonmanufacturing -5.2 -1.0
All industries 1.8 0.2

Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment

Table: Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment year-to-year % change
  Consolidated Fixed Investment Overseas Fixed Investment Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment
FY 2023
(Forecast)
FY 2024
(Forecast)
FY 2023
(Forecast)
FY 2024
(Forecast)
FY 2023
(Forecast)
FY 2024
(Forecast)
Manufacturing 12.2 2.2 1.7 1.7 35.61 35.45
Nonmanufacturing 5.3 3.5 7.1 4.5 16.92 17.08
All industries 8.7 2.9 3.4 2.6 26.33 26.26