Tankan Outline (March 2024)
April 1, 2024
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manufacturing | Nonmanufacturing | Total | (Response rate) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 3,794 | 5,324 | 9,118 | ( 99.0%) | |
All Enterprises | of which Large Enterprises | 917 | 817 | 1,734 | ( 99.1%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,062 | 1,532 | 2,594 | ( 98.8%) | |
Small Enterprises | 1,815 | 2,975 | 4,790 | ( 99.1%) |
[Responding Period: February 27 to March 29]
Figures are based on sample enterprises after the March 2024 revision.
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses
Dec. 2023 Survey | March 2024 Survey | ||
---|---|---|---|
FY 2023 | 139.38 | 140.36 | |
FY 2023 | 1H | 138.75 | 139.04 |
2H | 140.00 | 141.68 | |
FY 2024 | - | 141.42 | |
FY 2024 | 1H | - | 141.60 |
2H | - | 141.25 |
Dec. 2023 Survey | March 2024 Survey | ||
---|---|---|---|
FY 2023 | 148.85 | 150.24 | |
FY 2023 | 1H | 148.63 | 148.90 |
2H | 149.07 | 151.57 | |
FY 2024 | - | 151.86 | |
FY 2024 | 1H | - | 151.99 |
2H | - | 151.73 |
Business Conditions
Large Enterprises
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2024 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | ( 8) | ||||
13 | 11 | -2 | 10 | -1 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 27) | ||||
32 | 34 | +2 | 27 | -7 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2024 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | ( 5) | ||||
6 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -1 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 15) | ||||
19 | 20 | +1 | 15 | -5 |
Small Enterprises
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2024 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | ( 0) | ||||
2 | -1 | -3 | 0 | +1 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 7) | ||||
14 | 13 | -1 | 8 | -5 |
All Enterprises
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2024 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | ( 8) | ||||
13 | 12 | -1 | 9 | -3 |
(Notes)
- FY : Fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H : First half (April - September)
2H : Second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2024 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -9 | -11 | -2 | -9 | +2 |
Small Enterprises | -20 | -20 | 0 | -18 | +2 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2024 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -14 | -14 | 0 | -10 | +4 |
Small Enterprises | -17 | -17 | 0 | -14 | +3 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2024 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 20 | 24 | +4 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 17 | 18 | +1 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2024 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 14 | 15 | +1 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 16 | 16 | 0 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2024 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 27 | 25 | -2 | 24 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 27 | 26 | -1 | 33 | +7 |
Change in Input Prices
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2024 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 41 | 42 | +1 | 41 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 57 | 56 | -1 | 59 | +3 |
Sales
Large Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 3.4 | -0.5 | 0.8 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.5 | +0.3 | 1.0 | - |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1.9 | -0.3 | 1.9 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.7 | +0.7 | 1.8 | - |
Small Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 2.1 | -0.1 | 1.5 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.1 | +0.7 | 0.1 | - |
All Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 2.7 | +0.2 | 1.0 | - |
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and previous survey.
Current Profits
Large Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 7.4 | +4.3 | -4.0 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 8.7 | +2.3 | -3.4 | - |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1.5 | +3.4 | -5.4 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.9 | +6.0 | -2.5 | - |
Small Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 2.2 | +2.2 | 0.8 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.2 | +3.9 | 0.1 | - |
All Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 6.9 | +3.6 | -3.0 | - |
Ratio of Current Profit to Sales
Large Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Changes | FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 11.32 | +0.52 | 10.78 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 8.17 | +0.17 | 7.81 | - |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Changes | FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 5.01 | +0.18 | 4.65 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.19 | +0.20 | 4.02 | - |
Small Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Changes | FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 4.29 | +0.10 | 4.26 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.86 | +0.12 | 3.86 | - |
All Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Changes | FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 6.80 | +0.22 | 6.53 | - |
Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses*
Large Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 14.5 | -2.8 | 8.5 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 9.8 | -0.7 | 1.5 | - |
All industries | 11.5 | -1.5 | 4.0 | - |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 11.8 | -3.5 | 10.8 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 10.0 | +1.9 | 5.7 | - |
All industries | 10.7 | -0.4 | 7.7 | - |
Small Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -8.6 | -4.7 | 3.6 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 18.9 | +2.7 | -6.9 | - |
All industries | 8.4 | +0.2 | -3.6 | - |
All Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 9.4 | -3.3 | 8.2 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 11.6 | +0.4 | 0.5 | - |
All industries | 10.7 | -1.0 | 3.3 | - |
Reference
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies | 10.8 | -1.4 | 3.0 | - |
- * Excludes software and R&D investment.
Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses
Large Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 9.5 | -1.2 | 4.4 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 9.5 | -3.3 | 3.8 | - |
All industries | 9.5 | -2.1 | 4.1 | - |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 9.9 | -3.3 | 9.8 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 10.4 | +0.3 | 7.4 | - |
All industries | 10.2 | -1.5 | 8.5 | - |
Small Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 0.0 | -5.0 | 3.0 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 23.2 | +1.4 | 0.8 | - |
All industries | 13.7 | -1.0 | 1.6 | - |
All Enterprises
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 8.6 | -1.9 | 5.1 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 11.9 | -1.8 | 3.9 | - |
All industries | 10.2 | -1.9 | 4.5 | - |
Reference
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies | 9.9 | -2.1 | 4.9 | - |
Production Capacity (Manufacturing)
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2024 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 2 | 3 | +1 | 1 | -2 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | -3 |
Small Enterprises | 2 | 1 | -1 | -3 | -4 |
All Enterprises | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | -3 |
Employment Conditions (All industries)
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2024 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -25 | -27 | -2 | -27 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -36 | -37 | -1 | -40 | -3 |
Small Enterprises | -38 | -38 | 0 | -43 | -5 |
All Enterprises | -35 | -36 | -1 | -39 | -3 |
Financial Position (All industries)
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 14 | 14 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 14 | 14 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 9 | 8 | -1 |
All Enterprises | 11 | 11 | 0 |
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 15 | 14 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 17 | 18 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | 15 | 14 | -1 |
All Enterprises | 15 | 15 | 0 |
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March |
June 2024 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 22 | 22 | 0 | 34 | +12 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 18 | 19 | +1 | 31 | +12 |
Small Enterprises | 14 | 15 | +1 | 30 | +15 |
All Enterprises | 17 | 17 | 0 | 31 | +14 |
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 14 | 12 | -2 |
Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook
Output Prices
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
3 years ahead | 2.8 | 2.8 | 0.0 | |
5 years ahead | 2.9 | 3.1 | +0.2 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 1.9 | 2.0 | +0.1 |
3 years ahead | 2.6 | 2.8 | +0.2 | |
5 years ahead | 3.1 | 3.2 | +0.1 |
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 3.1 | 3.4 | +0.3 |
3 years ahead | 4.5 | 4.7 | +0.2 | |
5 years ahead | 5.1 | 5.6 | +0.5 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 2.9 | 3.0 | +0.1 |
3 years ahead | 4.1 | 4.2 | +0.1 | |
5 years ahead | 4.8 | 5.0 | +0.2 |
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 1 year ahead | 2.6 | 2.7 | +0.1 |
3 years ahead | 3.7 | 4.0 | +0.3 | |
5 years ahead | 4.4 | 4.7 | +0.3 |
General Prices
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
3 years ahead | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.0 | |
5 years ahead | 1.7 | 1.5 | -0.2 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
3 years ahead | 1.6 | 1.8 | +0.2 | |
5 years ahead | 1.4 | 1.6 | +0.2 |
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 2.7 | 2.6 | -0.1 |
3 years ahead | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0.0 | |
5 years ahead | 2.3 | 2.4 | +0.1 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 |
3 years ahead | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0.0 | |
5 years ahead | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
Dec. 2023 Survey |
March 2024 Survey |
Change between Dec. and March | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 1 year ahead | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
3 years ahead | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | |
5 years ahead | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
Overseas Business Activities
Number of Sample Enterprises
Enterprises | (Response rate) | ||
---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 371 | ( 44.2%) | |
Manufacturing | Basic materials | 132 | ( 52.3%) |
Processing | 239 | ( 39.7%) | |
Nonmanufacturing | 201 | ( 44.3%) | |
All industries | 572 | ( 44.2%) |
[Responding Period: February 27 to March 29]
Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales
Consolidated Sales | Overseas Sales | Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
FY 2024 (Forecast) | |
Manufacturing | 4.9 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 58.47 | 58.31 |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.4 | 0.2 | -0.3 | -0.6 | 27.77 | 27.56 |
All industries | 3.2 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 44.45 | 44.32 |
Consolidated Current Profits
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
FY 2024 (Forecast) | |
---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 7.8 | 1.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | -5.2 | -1.0 |
All industries | 1.8 | 0.2 |
Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment
Consolidated Fixed Investment | Overseas Fixed Investment | Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
FY 2024 (Forecast) |
FY 2023 (Forecast) |
FY 2024 (Forecast) | |
Manufacturing | 12.2 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 35.61 | 35.45 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.3 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 16.92 | 17.08 |
All industries | 8.7 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 26.33 | 26.26 |