Tankan Outline (September 2024)

October 1, 2024
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Tankan Summary

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
		Manufacturing	Nonmanufacturing	Total	(Response rate)
All Enterprises		3,763	5,275	9,038	( 99.2%)
All Enterprises	of which Large Enterprises	916	814	1,730	( 99.1%)
	Medium-sized Enterprises	1,054	1,522	2,576	( 99.4%)
	Small Enterprises	1,793	2,939	4,732	( 99.2%)

[Responding Period: August 27 to September 30]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses

Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/U.S. dollar
		June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey
FY 2023		141.58	-
FY 2023	1H	139.40	-
FY 2023	2H	143.76	-
FY 2024		144.77	145.15
FY 2024	1H	144.96	146.00
FY 2024	2H	144.59	144.31

Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/euro
		June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey
FY 2023		152.06	-
FY 2023	1H	149.48	-
FY 2023	2H	154.65	-
FY 2024		155.40	157.07
FY 2024	1H	155.61	157.79
FY 2024	2H	155.20	156.35

Business Conditions

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.	Dec. 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Manufacturing		( 14)
Manufacturing	13	13	0	14	+1
Nonmanufacturing		( 27)
Nonmanufacturing	33	34	+1	28	-6

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.	Dec. 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Manufacturing		( 7)
Manufacturing	8	8	0	9	+1
Nonmanufacturing		( 16)
Nonmanufacturing	22	23	+1	16	-7

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.	Dec. 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Manufacturing		( 0)
Manufacturing	-1	0	+1	0	0
Nonmanufacturing		( 8)
Nonmanufacturing	12	14	+2	11	-3

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.	Dec. 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Sept. and Dec.
All industries		( 10)
All industries	12	14	+2	11	-3

(Notes)

FY : Fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H : First half (April - September)
2H : Second half (October - March of the following year)
Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services

Table: Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
	June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.	Dec. 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	-10	-8	+2	-7	+1
Small Enterprises	-20	-20	0	-20	0

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products

Table: Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
	June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.	Dec. 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	-10	-10	0	-7	+3
Small Enterprises	-16	-17	-1	-16	+1

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise

Table: Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
	June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.	Dec. 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	18	19	+1	-	-
Small Enterprises	16	18	+2	-	-

Wholesalers' Inventory Level

Table: Wholesalers' Inventory Level DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
	June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.	Dec. 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	12	12	0	-	-
Small Enterprises	17	18	+1	-	-

Change in Output Prices

Table: Change in Output Prices DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
	June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.	Dec. 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	29	26	-3	26	0
Small Enterprises	30	29	-1	32	+3

Change in Input Prices

Table: Change in Input Prices DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
	June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.	Dec. 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	47	41	-6	39	-2
Small Enterprises	61	57	-4	56	-1

Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	Revision rate	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	3.4	-	2.7	+0.2
Nonmanufacturing	1.0	-	2.7	+0.2

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	Revision rate	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	2.2	-	3.7	+1.0
Nonmanufacturing	4.4	-	2.4	+0.2

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	Revision rate	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	2.6	-	1.7	+0.3
Nonmanufacturing	4.4	-	1.0	+1.1

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	Revision rate	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries	3.0	-	2.3	+0.5

(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and previous survey.

Current Profits

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	Revision rate	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	9.1	-	-7.0	+2.0
Nonmanufacturing	15.5	-	-6.9	+1.7

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	Revision rate	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	10.5	-	-2.0	+2.4
Nonmanufacturing	13.3	-	-2.9	+1.8

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	Revision rate	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	12.7	-	-5.5	+0.9
Nonmanufacturing	13.2	-	-3.1	+2.9

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	Revision rate	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries	12.4	-	-5.7	+2.0

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises %, %points
	FY 2023	Changes	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Changes
Manufacturing	11.50	-	10.41	+0.18
Nonmanufacturing	8.71	-	7.90	+0.12

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises %, %points
	FY 2023	Changes	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Changes
Manufacturing	5.45	-	5.15	+0.08
Nonmanufacturing	4.46	-	4.22	+0.06

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises %, %points
	FY 2023	Changes	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Changes
Manufacturing	4.71	-	4.37	+0.02
Nonmanufacturing	4.10	-	3.93	+0.06

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises %, %points
	FY 2023	Changes	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Changes
All industries	7.13	-	6.57	+0.10

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses^*

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	Revision rate	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	11.1	-	18.8	+0.3
Nonmanufacturing	10.4	-	6.0	-0.9
All industries	10.6	-	10.6	-0.4

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	Revision rate	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	9.0	-	15.3	-1.6
Nonmanufacturing	13.1	-	5.8	+2.0
All industries	11.4	-	9.5	+0.5

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	Revision rate	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-9.1	-	12.2	-0.7
Nonmanufacturing	20.8	-	-1.8	+5.9
All industries	9.4	-	2.6	+3.5

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	Revision rate	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	6.7	-	17.0	-0.2
Nonmanufacturing	12.8	-	4.4	+0.8
All industries	10.6	-	8.9	+0.4

Reference

Table: Reference year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	Revision rate	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies	10.5	-	8.8	+0.5

* Excludes software and R&D investment.

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	Revision rate	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	7.5	-	12.5	+0.1
Nonmanufacturing	9.5	-	9.4	-1.7
All industries	8.4	-	11.1	-0.7

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	Revision rate	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	7.5	-	13.7	-1.1
Nonmanufacturing	13.5	-	5.4	-0.2
All industries	10.6	-	9.3	-0.7

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	Revision rate	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-2.8	-	15.2	0.0
Nonmanufacturing	24.5	-	0.9	+1.5
All industries	13.4	-	5.9	+0.9

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	Revision rate	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	6.5	-	12.9	-0.1
Nonmanufacturing	12.7	-	7.1	-0.9
All industries	9.4	-	10.1	-0.5

Reference

Table: Reference year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	Revision rate	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies	9.4	-	10.4	-0.3

Production Capacity (Manufacturing)

Table: Production Capacity (Manufacturing) DI ("excessive capacity" - "insufficient capacity"), % points
	June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.	Dec. 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	3	2	-1	0	-2
Medium-sized Enterprises	1	3	+2	0	-3
Small Enterprises	3	2	-1	-1	-3
All Enterprises	2	3	+1	0	-3

Employment Conditions (All industries)

Table: Employment Conditions (All industries) DI ("excessive employment" - "insufficient employment"), % points
	June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.	Dec. 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	-28	-28	0	-30	-2
Medium-sized Enterprises	-36	-37	-1	-39	-2
Small Enterprises	-37	-38	-1	-43	-5
All Enterprises	-35	-36	-1	-40	-4

Financial Position (All industries)

Table: Financial Position (All industries) DI ("easy" - "tight"), % points
	June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.
Large Enterprises	14	14	0
Medium-sized Enterprises	16	15	-1
Small Enterprises	8	9	+1
All Enterprises	12	12	0

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)

Table: Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) DI ("accommodative" - "severe"), % points
	June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.
Large Enterprises	14	14	0
Medium-sized Enterprises	18	17	-1
Small Enterprises	14	14	0
All Enterprises	15	15	0

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)

Table: Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
	June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.	Dec. 2024 Survey (Forecast)	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	38	46	+8	49	+3
Medium-sized Enterprises	35	49	+14	55	+6
Small Enterprises	28	47	+19	56	+9
All Enterprises	32	48	+16	54	+6

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)

Table: Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) DI ("easy" - "severe"), % points
	June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.
Large Enterprises	8	9	+1

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook

Output Prices

Large Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
		June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	2.3	2.2	-0.1
	3 years ahead	3.2	3.1	-0.1
	5 years ahead	3.3	3.4	+0.1
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	2.1	2.1	0.0
	3 years ahead	3.0	3.0	0.0
	5 years ahead	3.4	3.5	+0.1

Small Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
		June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	3.4	3.3	-0.1
	3 years ahead	4.9	4.9	0.0
	5 years ahead	5.7	5.8	+0.1
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	3.1	3.1	0.0
	3 years ahead	4.4	4.3	-0.1
	5 years ahead	5.3	5.2	-0.1

All Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
		June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.
All industries	1 year ahead	2.8	2.8	0.0
	3 years ahead	4.1	4.1	0.0
	5 years ahead	4.8	4.9	+0.1

General Prices

Large Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
		June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	2.1	2.0	-0.1
	3 years ahead	1.8	1.8	0.0
	5 years ahead	1.7	1.8	+0.1
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	2.0	1.9	-0.1
	3 years ahead	1.8	1.7	-0.1
	5 years ahead	1.6	1.6	0.0

Small Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
		June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	2.7	2.6	-0.1
	3 years ahead	2.5	2.5	0.0
	5 years ahead	2.5	2.4	-0.1
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	2.6	2.6	0.0
	3 years ahead	2.5	2.4	-0.1
	5 years ahead	2.4	2.4	0.0

All Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
		June 2024 Survey	Sept. 2024 Survey	Change between June and Sept.
All industries	1 year ahead	2.4	2.4	0.0
	3 years ahead	2.3	2.3	0.0
	5 years ahead	2.2	2.2	0.0

Overseas Business Activities

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
		Enterprises	(Response rate)
Manufacturing		371	( 97.0%)
Manufacturing	Basic materials	132	( 98.5%)
Manufacturing	Processing	239	( 96.2%)
Nonmanufacturing		201	( 90.0%)
All industries		572	( 94.6%)

[Responding Period: August 27 to September 30]

Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales

Table: Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	FY 2024 (Forecast)	FY 2023	FY 2024 (Forecast)	FY 2023	FY 2024 (Forecast)
	Consolidated Sales		Overseas Sales		Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales
Manufacturing	6.0	3.5	5.3	2.3	60.97	60.31
Nonmanufacturing	0.4	3.1	-0.6	0.3	27.34	26.61
All industries	3.4	3.3	3.6	1.8	45.79	45.13

Consolidated Current Profits

Table: Consolidated Current Profits year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	FY 2024 (Forecast)
Manufacturing	12.4	-0.3
Nonmanufacturing	-2.4	-2.9
All industries	5.5	-1.4

Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment

Table: Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment year-to-year % change
	FY 2023	FY 2024 (Forecast)	FY 2023	FY 2024 (Forecast)	FY 2023	FY 2024 (Forecast)
	Consolidated Fixed Investment		Overseas Fixed Investment		Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment
Manufacturing	8.8	11.5	5.6	10.2	37.68	37.23
Nonmanufacturing	6.2	12.4	10.4	16.1	18.11	18.71
All industries	7.4	12.0	7.0	12.1	27.83	27.88

Tankan Outline (September 2024)

Number of Sample Enterprises

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses

Business Conditions

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise

Wholesalers' Inventory Level

Change in Output Prices

Change in Input Prices

Sales

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Current Profits

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses*

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Reference

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Reference

Production Capacity (Manufacturing)

Employment Conditions (All industries)

Financial Position (All industries)

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises (Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook

Output Prices

General Prices

Overseas Business Activities

Number of Sample Enterprises

Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales

Consolidated Current Profits

Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses^*

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook