Tankan Outline (March 2025)

April 1, 2025
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Tankan Summary

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
		Manufacturing	Nonmanufacturing	Total	(Response rate)
All Enterprises		3,735	5,236	8,971	( 99.0%)
All Enterprises	of which Large Enterprises	914	812	1,726	( 98.7%)
	Medium-sized Enterprises	1,047	1,515	2,562	( 99.3%)
	Small Enterprises	1,774	2,909	4,683	( 98.9%)

[Responding Period: February 26 to March 31]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses

Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/U.S. dollar
		Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey
FY 2024		146.88	147.94
FY 2024	1H	147.61	148.16
FY 2024	2H	146.15	147.72
FY 2025		-	147.06
FY 2025	1H	-	147.17
FY 2025	2H	-	146.95

Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/euro
		Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey
FY 2024		159.03	159.43
FY 2024	1H	160.17	160.47
FY 2024	2H	157.90	158.39
FY 2025		-	157.45
FY 2025	1H	-	157.57
FY 2025	2H	-	157.33

Business Conditions

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2025 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Manufacturing		( 13)
Manufacturing	14	12	-2	12	0
Nonmanufacturing		( 28)
Nonmanufacturing	33	35	+2	28	-7

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2025 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Manufacturing		( 8)
Manufacturing	11	11	0	4	-7
Nonmanufacturing		( 15)
Nonmanufacturing	22	25	+3	18	-7

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2025 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Manufacturing		( 0)
Manufacturing	1	2	+1	-1	-3
Nonmanufacturing		( 8)
Nonmanufacturing	16	16	0	9	-7

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
	Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2025 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
All industries		( 10)
All industries	15	15	0	10	-5

(Notes)

FY : Fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H : First half (April - September)
2H : Second half (October - March of the following year)
Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services

Table: Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
	Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2025 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	-10	-9	+1	-8	+1
Small Enterprises	-20	-19	+1	-19	0

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products

Table: Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
	Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2025 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	-12	-10	+2	-9	+1
Small Enterprises	-18	-16	+2	-16	0

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise

Table: Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
	Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2025 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	19	17	-2	-	-
Small Enterprises	17	13	-4	-	-

Wholesalers' Inventory Level

Table: Wholesalers' Inventory Level DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
	Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2025 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	13	12	-1	-	-
Small Enterprises	17	16	-1	-	-

Change in Output Prices

Table: Change in Output Prices DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
	Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2025 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	25	28	+3	30	+2
Small Enterprises	29	27	-2	37	+10

Change in Input Prices

Table: Change in Input Prices DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
	Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2025 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	39	41	+2	43	+2
Small Enterprises	58	57	-1	62	+5

Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	2.8	+0.1	1.0	-
Nonmanufacturing	3.6	+0.3	0.8	-

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	3.5	0.0	1.6	-
Nonmanufacturing	4.1	+1.1	1.5	-

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	3.0	+0.5	0.7	-
Nonmanufacturing	2.8	+1.0	-0.1	-

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries	3.3	+0.5	0.8	-

(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and previous survey.

Current Profits

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	2.6	+8.3	0.2	-
Nonmanufacturing	-0.4	+2.4	-1.0	-

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-0.7	+3.4	-3.9	-
Nonmanufacturing	4.7	+4.4	-1.2	-

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	-0.7	+3.5	-2.5	-
Nonmanufacturing	3.6	+4.4	-5.7	-

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries	1.6	+4.9	-1.4	-

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises %, %points
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Changes	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Changes
Manufacturing	11.47	+0.86	11.38	-
Nonmanufacturing	8.38	+0.17	8.22	-

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises %, %points
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Changes	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Changes
Manufacturing	5.23	+0.17	4.94	-
Nonmanufacturing	4.48	+0.14	4.37	-

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises %, %points
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Changes	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Changes
Manufacturing	4.54	+0.13	4.40	-
Nonmanufacturing	4.13	+0.13	3.90	-

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises %, %points
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Changes	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Changes
All industries	7.02	+0.30	6.86	-

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses^*

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	13.4	-2.3	4.8	-
Nonmanufacturing	6.1	-2.4	2.1	-
All industries	8.7	-2.3	3.1	-

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	8.3	-6.6	11.1	-
Nonmanufacturing	8.6	+2.2	-6.8	-
All industries	8.5	-1.5	0.3	-

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	9.0	-1.3	0.2	-
Nonmanufacturing	4.2	+3.1	-15.0	-
All industries	5.7	+1.6	-10.0	-

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	11.6	-3.0	5.4	-
Nonmanufacturing	6.2	-0.5	-2.9	-
All industries	8.1	-1.4	0.1	-

Reference

Table: Reference year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies	8.1	-1.4	0.4	-

* Excludes software and R&D investment.

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	10.1	-1.4	3.0	-
Nonmanufacturing	8.4	-2.0	2.9	-
All industries	9.3	-1.7	2.9	-

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	7.2	-5.1	10.5	-
Nonmanufacturing	5.8	+1.9	-1.7	-
All industries	6.5	-1.6	4.1	-

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	10.5	-2.9	2.7	-
Nonmanufacturing	3.0	+0.7	-7.5	-
All industries	5.6	-0.7	-3.8	-

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Revision rate
Manufacturing	9.7	-2.1	4.1	-
Nonmanufacturing	6.9	-0.8	0.3	-
All industries	8.4	-1.5	2.2	-

Reference

Table: Reference year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	Revision rate	FY 2025 (Forecast)	Revision rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies	8.4	-1.7	2.8	-

Production Capacity (Manufacturing)

Table: Production Capacity (Manufacturing) DI ("excessive capacity" - "insufficient capacity"), % points
	Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2025 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	3	3	0	0	-3
Medium-sized Enterprises	2	1	-1	0	-1
Small Enterprises	2	1	-1	-1	-2
All Enterprises	2	1	-1	0	-1

Employment Conditions (All industries)

Table: Employment Conditions (All industries) DI ("excessive employment" - "insufficient employment"), % points
	Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2025 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	-28	-28	0	-30	-2
Medium-sized Enterprises	-36	-38	-2	-40	-2
Small Enterprises	-40	-39	+1	-44	-5
All Enterprises	-36	-37	-1	-39	-2

Financial Position (All industries)

Table: Financial Position (All industries) DI ("easy" - "tight"), % points
	Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	14	12	-2
Medium-sized Enterprises	15	13	-2
Small Enterprises	8	8	0
All Enterprises	12	10	-2

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)

Table: Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) DI ("accommodative" - "severe"), % points
	Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	14	13	-1
Medium-sized Enterprises	17	16	-1
Small Enterprises	13	13	0
All Enterprises	14	14	0

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)

Table: Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
	Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March	June 2025 Survey (Forecast)	Change between March and June
Large Enterprises	46	58	+12	59	+1
Medium-sized Enterprises	51	63	+12	65	+2
Small Enterprises	51	63	+12	65	+2
All Enterprises	50	62	+12	64	+2

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)

Table: Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) DI ("easy" - "severe"), % points
	Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	8	7	-1

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook

Output Prices

Large Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
		Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	2.2	2.3	+0.1
	3 years ahead	3.2	3.4	+0.2
	5 years ahead	3.4	3.7	+0.3
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	2.2	2.4	+0.2
	3 years ahead	3.1	3.1	0.0
	5 years ahead	3.6	3.5	-0.1

Small Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
		Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	3.2	3.4	+0.2
	3 years ahead	4.9	5.2	+0.3
	5 years ahead	5.9	6.1	+0.2
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	3.2	3.3	+0.1
	3 years ahead	4.5	4.6	+0.1
	5 years ahead	5.4	5.6	+0.2

All Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
		Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March
All industries	1 year ahead	2.8	2.9	+0.1
	3 years ahead	4.2	4.4	+0.2
	5 years ahead	5.0	5.2	+0.2

General Prices

Large Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
		Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	2.0	2.1	+0.1
	3 years ahead	1.8	2.0	+0.2
	5 years ahead	1.7	1.9	+0.2
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	2.0	2.1	+0.1
	3 years ahead	1.8	1.9	+0.1
	5 years ahead	1.7	1.7	0.0

Small Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
		Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March
Manufacturing	1 year ahead	2.6	2.7	+0.1
	3 years ahead	2.5	2.6	+0.1
	5 years ahead	2.5	2.5	0.0
Nonmanufacturing	1 year ahead	2.6	2.7	+0.1
	3 years ahead	2.5	2.6	+0.1
	5 years ahead	2.4	2.5	+0.1

All Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
		Dec. 2024 Survey	March 2025 Survey	Change between Dec. and March
All industries	1 year ahead	2.4	2.5	+0.1
	3 years ahead	2.3	2.4	+0.1
	5 years ahead	2.2	2.3	+0.1

Overseas Business Activities

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
		Enterprises	(Response rate)
Manufacturing		370	( 45.4%)
Manufacturing	Basic materials	131	( 52.7%)
Manufacturing	Processing	239	( 41.4%)
Nonmanufacturing		200	( 39.0%)
All industries		570	( 43.2%)

[Responding Period: February 26 to March 31]

Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales

Table: Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	FY 2025 (Forecast)	FY 2024 (Forecast)	FY 2025 (Forecast)	FY 2024 (Forecast)	FY 2025 (Forecast)
	Consolidated Sales		Overseas Sales		Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales
Manufacturing	3.6	0.3	0.9	0.4	59.33	59.39
Nonmanufacturing	3.5	-0.2	1.6	0.0	26.86	26.90
All industries	3.5	0.1	1.1	0.3	44.68	44.76

Consolidated Current Profits

Table: Consolidated Current Profits year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	FY 2025 (Forecast)
Manufacturing	0.4	1.9
Nonmanufacturing	-1.5	-0.9
All industries	-0.5	0.7

Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment

Table: Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment year-to-year % change
	FY 2024 (Forecast)	FY 2025 (Forecast)	FY 2024 (Forecast)	FY 2025 (Forecast)	FY 2024 (Forecast)	FY 2025 (Forecast)
	Consolidated Fixed Investment		Overseas Fixed Investment		Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment
Manufacturing	12.1	1.8	9.6	2.3	36.59	36.79
Nonmanufacturing	10.1	-0.7	17.5	-0.8	19.15	19.13
All industries	11.1	0.5	12.2	1.3	27.87	28.07

Tankan Outline (March 2025)

Number of Sample Enterprises

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses

Business Conditions

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise

Wholesalers' Inventory Level

Change in Output Prices

Change in Input Prices

Sales

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Current Profits

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses*

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Reference

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses

Large Enterprises

Medium-sized Enterprises

Small Enterprises

All Enterprises

Reference

Production Capacity (Manufacturing)

Employment Conditions (All industries)

Financial Position (All industries)

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises (Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook

Output Prices

General Prices

Overseas Business Activities

Number of Sample Enterprises

Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales

Consolidated Current Profits

Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses^*

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook