Tankan Outline (September 2025)
October 1, 2025
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Number of Sample Enterprises
Manufacturing | Nonmanufacturing | Total | (Response rate) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 3,696 | 5,174 | 8,870 | ( 99.4%) | |
All Enterprises | of which Large Enterprises | 910 | 804 | 1,714 | ( 99.1%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,036 | 1,506 | 2,542 | ( 99.3%) | |
Small Enterprises | 1,750 | 2,864 | 4,614 | ( 99.5%) |
[Responding Period: August 27 to September 30]
Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses
June 2025 Survey | Sept. 2025 Survey | ||
---|---|---|---|
FY 2024 | 148.44 | - | |
FY 2024 | 1H | 148.31 | - |
2H | 148.57 | - | |
FY 2025 | 145.72 | 145.68 | |
FY 2025 | 1H | 145.87 | 145.94 |
2H | 145.56 | 145.41 |
June 2025 Survey | Sept. 2025 Survey | ||
---|---|---|---|
FY 2024 | 160.18 | - | |
FY 2024 | 1H | 160.76 | - |
2H | 159.61 | - | |
FY 2025 | 157.79 | 160.65 | |
FY 2025 | 1H | 157.89 | 160.66 |
2H | 157.68 | 160.65 |
Business Conditions
Large Enterprises
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2025 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | ( 12) | ||||
13 | 14 | +1 | 12 | -2 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 27) | ||||
34 | 34 | 0 | 28 | -6 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2025 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | ( 6) | ||||
10 | 12 | +2 | 8 | -4 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 17) | ||||
25 | 24 | -1 | 18 | -6 |
Small Enterprises
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2025 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | ( -2) | ||||
1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -2 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 9) | ||||
15 | 14 | -1 | 10 | -4 |
All Enterprises
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2025 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | ( 9) | ||||
15 | 15 | 0 | 10 | -5 |
(Notes)
- FY : Fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H : First half (April - September)
2H : Second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2025 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -10 | -10 | 0 | -9 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | -18 | -18 | 0 | -18 | 0 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2025 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -10 | -10 | 0 | -7 | +3 |
Small Enterprises | -16 | -15 | +1 | -15 | 0 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2025 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 16 | 16 | 0 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 14 | 14 | 0 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2025 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 11 | 10 | -1 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 14 | 13 | -1 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2025 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 25 | 24 | -1 | 25 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | 27 | 25 | -2 | 31 | +6 |
Change in Input Prices
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2025 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 39 | 38 | -1 | 39 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | 54 | 52 | -2 | 56 | +4 |
Sales
Large Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Revision rate |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 3.0 | - | 1.5 | -0.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.9 | - | 1.7 | -0.2 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Revision rate |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 3.5 | - | 1.9 | +0.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.2 | - | 3.6 | +1.0 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Revision rate |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 3.8 | - | 1.4 | +1.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.5 |
All Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Revision rate |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 3.8 | - | 1.7 | +0.3 |
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and previous survey.
Current Profits
Large Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Revision rate |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 6.0 | - | -8.6 | -0.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.4 | - | -0.7 | +0.6 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Revision rate |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 4.2 | - | -7.7 | +1.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | 9.0 | - | 0.9 | +3.9 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Revision rate |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 6.3 | - | -5.1 | +3.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | 11.1 | - | -9.6 | +1.2 |
All Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Revision rate |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 5.6 | - | -4.8 | +0.9 |
Ratio of Current Profit to Sales
Large Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Changes | FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 11.82 | - | 10.66 | 0.00 |
Nonmanufacturing | 8.59 | - | 8.39 | +0.08 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Changes | FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 5.48 | - | 4.97 | +0.03 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.66 | - | 4.54 | +0.12 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Changes | FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 4.82 | - | 4.51 | +0.09 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.38 | - | 3.95 | +0.03 |
All Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Changes | FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 7.26 | - | 6.80 | +0.05 |
Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses*
Large Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Revision rate |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 7.6 | - | 16.3 | +1.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | 7.4 | - | 10.4 | +0.4 |
All industries | 7.5 | - | 12.5 | +0.9 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Revision rate |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 4.9 | - | 15.3 | -0.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | 8.9 | - | -0.5 | +3.9 |
All industries | 7.3 | - | 5.6 | +2.1 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Revision rate |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 9.5 | - | 3.4 | +1.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 7.0 | - | -4.9 | +4.4 |
All industries | 7.8 | - | -2.3 | +3.5 |
All Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Revision rate |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 7.3 | - | 13.9 | +1.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 7.6 | - | 5.3 | +1.7 |
All industries | 7.5 | - | 8.4 | +1.5 |
Reference
FY 2024 |
Revision rate |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies | 7.5 | - | 8.4 | +1.3 |
- * Excludes software and R&D investment.
Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses
Large Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Revision rate |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 6.6 | - | 9.9 | +1.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | 8.2 | - | 12.3 | +0.5 |
All industries | 7.3 | - | 11.0 | +0.8 |
Medium-sized Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Revision rate |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 4.5 | - | 14.5 | -0.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.1 | - | 5.4 | +2.2 |
All industries | 4.8 | - | 9.7 | +0.7 |
Small Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Revision rate |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 10.4 | - | 7.5 | +0.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.6 | - | -1.3 | +0.8 |
All industries | 7.3 | - | 1.9 | +0.7 |
All Enterprises
FY 2024 |
Revision rate |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 6.6 | - | 10.4 | +0.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | 7.1 | - | 8.6 | +0.8 |
All industries | 6.9 | - | 9.5 | +0.8 |
Reference
FY 2024 |
Revision rate |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies | 6.8 | - | 10.4 | +0.8 |
Production Capacity (Manufacturing)
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2025 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 1 | 0 | -1 | -2 | -2 |
All Enterprises | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -2 |
Employment Conditions (All industries)
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2025 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -28 | -28 | 0 | -30 | -2 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -37 | -37 | 0 | -40 | -3 |
Small Enterprises | -37 | -39 | -2 | -43 | -4 |
All Enterprises | -35 | -36 | -1 | -40 | -4 |
Financial Position (All industries)
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 13 | 13 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 14 | 14 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 8 | 8 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 11 | 10 | -1 |
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 12 | 12 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 16 | 17 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | 13 | 12 | -1 |
All Enterprises | 14 | 14 | 0 |
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2025 Survey (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 47 | 43 | -4 | 51 | +8 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 55 | 50 | -5 | 56 | +6 |
Small Enterprises | 55 | 49 | -6 | 56 | +7 |
All Enterprises | 54 | 48 | -6 | 55 | +7 |
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 9 | 10 | +1 |
Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook
Output Prices
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 2.3 | 2.2 | -0.1 |
3 years ahead | 3.1 | 3.2 | +0.1 | |
5 years ahead | 3.8 | 3.9 | +0.1 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
3 years ahead | 3.2 | 3.4 | +0.2 | |
5 years ahead | 3.9 | 4.1 | +0.2 |
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 3.2 | 3.1 | -0.1 |
3 years ahead | 5.1 | 5.1 | 0.0 | |
5 years ahead | 5.8 | 5.9 | +0.1 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 3.1 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
3 years ahead | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 | |
5 years ahead | 5.5 | 5.6 | +0.1 |
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 1 year ahead | 2.9 | 2.8 | -0.1 |
3 years ahead | 4.3 | 4.3 | 0.0 | |
5 years ahead | 5.1 | 5.2 | +0.1 |
General Prices
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 2.1 | 2.0 | -0.1 |
3 years ahead | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | |
5 years ahead | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.0 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
3 years ahead | 1.9 | 2.0 | +0.1 | |
5 years ahead | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.0 |
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 1 year ahead | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 |
3 years ahead | 2.5 | 2.6 | +0.1 | |
5 years ahead | 2.5 | 2.6 | +0.1 | |
Nonmanufacturing | 1 year ahead | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 |
3 years ahead | 2.5 | 2.6 | +0.1 | |
5 years ahead | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
June 2025 Survey |
Sept. 2025 Survey |
Change between June and Sept. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
All industries | 1 year ahead | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
3 years ahead | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0.0 | |
5 years ahead | 2.3 | 2.4 | +0.1 |
Overseas Business Activities
Number of Sample Enterprises
Enterprises | (Response rate) | ||
---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing | 369 | ( 96.2%) | |
Manufacturing | Basic materials | 131 | ( 96.2%) |
Processing | 238 | ( 96.2%) | |
Nonmanufacturing | 197 | ( 90.4%) | |
All industries | 566 | ( 94.2%) |
[Responding Period: August 27 to September 30]
Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales
Consolidated Sales | Overseas Sales | Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY 2024 |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
FY 2024 |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
FY 2024 |
FY 2025 (Forecast) | |
Manufacturing | 3.6 | 0.3 | 3.1 | -1.9 | 61.23 | 59.92 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.5 | 1.3 | 6.0 | -0.1 | 27.90 | 27.51 |
All industries | 4.0 | 0.7 | 3.8 | -1.4 | 46.10 | 45.13 |
Consolidated Current Profits
FY 2024 |
FY 2025 (Forecast) | |
---|---|---|
Manufacturing | -1.9 | -8.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.2 | -3.9 |
All industries | 0.3 | -6.2 |
Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment
Consolidated Fixed Investment | Overseas Fixed Investment | Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY 2024 |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
FY 2024 |
FY 2025 (Forecast) |
FY 2024 |
FY 2025 (Forecast) | |
Manufacturing | 7.0 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 37.77 | 36.07 |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.0 | 7.3 | 14.3 | 1.1 | 19.61 | 18.48 |
All industries | 6.5 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 28.39 | 27.19 |