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Tankan Outline (December 2025)

December 15, 2025
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 3,686 5,150 8,836 ( 99.4%)
All Enterprises of which Large Enterprises 910 803 1,713 ( 99.4%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,034 1,499 2,533 ( 99.3%)
Small Enterprises 1,742 2,848 4,590 ( 99.5%)

[Responding Period: November 11 to December 12]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses

Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/U.S. dollar
  June 2025 Survey Sept. 2025 Survey Dec. 2025 Survey
FY 2024 148.44 - -
FY 2024 1H 148.31 - -
2H 148.57 - -
FY 2025 145.72 145.68 147.06
FY 2025 1H 145.87 145.94 146.80
2H 145.56 145.41 147.33
Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/euro
  June 2025 Survey Sept. 2025 Survey Dec. 2025 Survey
FY 2024 160.18 - -
FY 2024 1H 160.76 - -
2H 159.61 - -
FY 2025 157.79 160.65 164.45
FY 2025 1H 157.89 160.66 164.00
2H 157.68 160.65 164.90

Business Conditions

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.		 March 2026
Survey
(Forecast)		 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Manufacturing   ( 12)      
14 15 +1 15 0
Nonmanufacturing   ( 28)      
34 34 0 28 -6

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.		 March 2026
Survey
(Forecast)		 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Manufacturing   ( 8)      
12 16 +4 10 -6
Nonmanufacturing   ( 18)      
24 25 +1 18 -7

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.		 March 2026
Survey
(Forecast)		 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Manufacturing   ( -1)      
1 6 +5 2 -4
Nonmanufacturing   ( 10)      
14 15 +1 10 -5

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.		 March 2026
Survey
(Forecast)		 Change
between
Dec. and
March
All industries   ( 10)      
15 17 +2 11 -6

(Notes)

  1. FY : Fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H : First half (April - September)
    2H : Second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services

Table: Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.		 March 2026
Survey
(Forecast)		 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -10 -9 +1 -8 +1
Small Enterprises -18 -17 +1 -17 0

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products

Table: Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.		 March 2026
Survey
(Forecast)		 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -10 -8 +2 -6 +2
Small Enterprises -15 -15 0 -16 -1

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise

Table: Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.		 March 2026
Survey
(Forecast)		 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 16 15 -1 - -
Small Enterprises 14 12 -2 - -

Wholesalers' Inventory Level

Table: Wholesalers' Inventory Level DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.		 March 2026
Survey
(Forecast)		 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 10 10 0 - -
Small Enterprises 13 12 -1 - -

Change in Output Prices

Table: Change in Output Prices DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.		 March 2026
Survey
(Forecast)		 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 24 25 +1 26 +1
Small Enterprises 25 26 +1 32 +6

Change in Input Prices

Table: Change in Input Prices DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.		 March 2026
Survey
(Forecast)		 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 38 40 +2 43 +3
Small Enterprises 52 54 +2 59 +5

Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 Revision
rate		 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
Manufacturing 3.0 - 1.2 -0.3
Nonmanufacturing 3.9 - 1.8 +0.1

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 Revision
rate		 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
Manufacturing 3.5 - 2.0 +0.1
Nonmanufacturing 4.2 - 4.2 +0.5

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 Revision
rate		 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
Manufacturing 3.8 - 2.0 +0.6
Nonmanufacturing 4.0 - 1.0 +0.8

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 Revision
rate		 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
All industries 3.8 - 1.9 +0.3

(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and previous survey.

Current Profits

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 Revision
rate		 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
Manufacturing 6.0 - -7.8 +0.8
Nonmanufacturing 2.4 - 1.0 +1.7

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 Revision
rate		 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
Manufacturing 4.2 - -1.5 +6.7
Nonmanufacturing 9.0 - 6.3 +5.3

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 Revision
rate		 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
Manufacturing 6.3 - -3.3 +1.9
Nonmanufacturing 11.1 - -6.6 +3.3

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 Revision
rate		 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
All industries 5.6 - -2.7 +2.3

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2024
 Changes FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Changes
Manufacturing 11.82 - 10.77 +0.11
Nonmanufacturing 8.59 - 8.52 +0.13

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2024
 Changes FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Changes
Manufacturing 5.48 - 5.30 +0.33
Nonmanufacturing 4.66 - 4.76 +0.22

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2024
 Changes FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Changes
Manufacturing 4.82 - 4.57 +0.06
Nonmanufacturing 4.38 - 4.05 +0.10

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2024
 Changes FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Changes
All industries 7.26 - 6.93 +0.13

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses*

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 Revision
rate		 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
Manufacturing 7.6 - 17.5 +1.0
Nonmanufacturing 7.4 - 9.9 -0.4
All industries 7.5 - 12.6 +0.1

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 Revision
rate		 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
Manufacturing 4.9 - 13.1 -1.9
Nonmanufacturing 8.9 - 0.9 +1.3
All industries 7.3 - 5.6 0.0

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 Revision
rate		 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
Manufacturing 9.5 - 2.5 -0.9
Nonmanufacturing 7.0 - -1.0 +4.1
All industries 7.8 - 0.1 +2.4

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 Revision
rate		 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
Manufacturing 7.3 - 14.0 +0.1
Nonmanufacturing 7.6 - 6.0 +0.7
All industries 7.5 - 8.9 +0.5

Reference

Table: Reference year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 Revision
rate		 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies 7.5 - 9.0 +0.5
  • * Excludes software and R&D investment.

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 Revision
rate		 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
Manufacturing 6.6 - 10.1 +0.1
Nonmanufacturing 8.2 - 11.7 -0.6
All industries 7.3 - 10.8 -0.2

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 Revision
rate		 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
Manufacturing 4.5 - 11.6 -2.5
Nonmanufacturing 5.1 - 5.3 -0.1
All industries 4.8 - 8.3 -1.3

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 Revision
rate		 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
Manufacturing 10.4 - 6.3 -1.1
Nonmanufacturing 5.6 - 3.5 +4.8
All industries 7.3 - 4.5 +2.6

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 Revision
rate		 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
Manufacturing 6.6 - 9.9 -0.4
Nonmanufacturing 7.1 - 9.1 +0.4
All industries 6.9 - 9.5 0.0

Reference

Table: Reference year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 Revision
rate		 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 Revision
rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies 6.8 - 10.4 0.0

Production Capacity (Manufacturing)

Table: Production Capacity (Manufacturing) DI ("excessive capacity" - "insufficient capacity"), % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.		 March 2026
Survey
(Forecast)		 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 1 0 -1 -1 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 0 1 +1 -2 -3
Small Enterprises 0 0 0 -2 -2
All Enterprises 1 0 -1 -2 -2

Employment Conditions (All industries)

Table: Employment Conditions (All industries) DI ("excessive employment" - "insufficient employment"), % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.		 March 2026
Survey
(Forecast)		 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -28 -28 0 -30 -2
Medium-sized Enterprises -37 -39 -2 -40 -1
Small Enterprises -39 -40 -1 -44 -4
All Enterprises -36 -38 -2 -41 -3

Financial Position (All industries)

Table: Financial Position (All industries) DI ("easy" - "tight"), % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 13 13 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 14 13 -1
Small Enterprises 8 8 0
All Enterprises 10 10 0

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)

Table: Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) DI ("accommodative" - "severe"), % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 12 13 +1
Medium-sized Enterprises 17 16 -1
Small Enterprises 12 12 0
All Enterprises 14 14 0

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)

Table: Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.		 March 2026
Survey
(Forecast)		 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 43 44 +1 52 +8
Medium-sized Enterprises 50 46 -4 56 +10
Small Enterprises 49 46 -3 55 +9
All Enterprises 48 45 -3 55 +10

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)

Table: Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) DI ("easy" - "severe"), % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 10 5 -5

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook

Output Prices

Large Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 2.2 2.2 0.0
3 years ahead 3.2 3.2 0.0
5 years ahead 3.9 3.9 0.0
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 2.3 2.2 -0.1
3 years ahead 3.4 3.3 -0.1
5 years ahead 4.1 4.0 -0.1
Small Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 3.1 3.2 +0.1
3 years ahead 5.1 5.0 -0.1
5 years ahead 5.9 5.9 0.0
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 3.1 3.0 -0.1
3 years ahead 4.5 4.6 +0.1
5 years ahead 5.6 5.5 -0.1
All Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
All industries 1 year ahead 2.8 2.7 -0.1
3 years ahead 4.3 4.3 0.0
5 years ahead 5.2 5.2 0.0

General Prices

Large Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 2.0 2.1 +0.1
3 years ahead 2.0 2.0 0.0
5 years ahead 1.9 1.9 0.0
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 2.1 2.1 0.0
3 years ahead 2.0 2.0 0.0
5 years ahead 1.9 2.0 +0.1
Small Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 2.6 2.6 0.0
3 years ahead 2.6 2.6 0.0
5 years ahead 2.6 2.6 0.0
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 2.6 2.6 0.0
3 years ahead 2.6 2.6 0.0
5 years ahead 2.5 2.5 0.0
All Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
  Sept. 2025
Survey		 Dec. 2025
Survey		 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
All industries 1 year ahead 2.4 2.4 0.0
3 years ahead 2.4 2.4 0.0
5 years ahead 2.4 2.4 0.0

Overseas Business Activities

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
  Enterprises (Response rate)
Manufacturing 369 ( 97.6%)
Manufacturing Basic materials 131 ( 98.5%)
Processing 238 ( 97.1%)
Nonmanufacturing 197 ( 90.4%)
All industries 566 ( 95.1%)

[Responding Period: November 11 to December 12]

Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales

Table: Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales year-to-year % change
  Consolidated Sales Overseas Sales Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales
FY 2024
 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 FY 2024
 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 FY 2024
 FY 2025
(Forecast)
Manufacturing 3.6 0.2 3.1 -1.1 61.23 60.42
Nonmanufacturing 4.5 1.4 6.0 -0.1 27.86 27.44
All industries 4.0 0.8 3.8 -0.8 46.08 45.35

Consolidated Current Profits

Table: Consolidated Current Profits year-to-year % change
  FY 2024
 FY 2025
(Forecast)
Manufacturing -1.9 -7.6
Nonmanufacturing 3.2 -2.3
All industries 0.3 -5.2

Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment

Table: Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment year-to-year % change
  Consolidated Fixed Investment Overseas Fixed Investment Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment
FY 2024
 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 FY 2024
 FY 2025
(Forecast)		 FY 2024
 FY 2025
(Forecast)
Manufacturing 7.0 12.2 7.9 7.4 37.69 36.07
Nonmanufacturing 6.0 5.9 14.3 -1.8 19.76 18.33
All industries 6.5 8.9 10.0 4.1 28.38 27.11