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Highlights of the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2026)

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Infographic image showing 'Japan's economy is likely to maintain moderate growth, albeit at a decelerated rate.' For details, see the full text of the Highlights of the Outlook Report.

Japan's economy is likely to maintain moderate growth, albeit at a decelerated rate.

Japan's economy is likely to maintain moderate growth, underpinned by factors such as high levels of corporate profits and the government's various measures, while growth is likely to decelerate due to the rise in crude oil prices reflecting the impact of the situation in the Middle East.

Infographic image showing 'Inflation is likely to move toward around 2 percent.' For details, see the full text of the Highlights of the Outlook Report.

Inflation is likely to move toward around 2 percent.

The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI is likely to be in the range of 2.5-3.0 percent in fiscal 2026, as the rise in crude oil prices is expected to push up prices of energy and goods. Thereafter, with the waning of the effects of high crude oil prices, the rate of increase is expected to decline to the range of 2.0-2.5 percent in fiscal 2027 and to around 2 percent in fiscal 2028. Meanwhile, underlying CPI inflation, which excludes temporary fluctuations, is likely to increase gradually and then be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2 percent.

Infographic image showing 'The impact of the situation in the Middle East on economic activity and prices warrants attention.' For details, see the full text of the Highlights of the Outlook Report.

The impact of the situation in the Middle East on economic activity and prices warrants attention.

Regarding risks to the outlook for economic activity and prices, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the future course of the situation in the Middle East on financial and foreign exchange markets and on economic activity and prices. It is necessary to pay due attention, in particular, to keep the risk of inflation significantly deviating upward from materializing and thereby exerting an adverse impact on the economy.

Infographic image showing 'The Bank will conduct monetary policy with the 2 percent target.' For details, see the full text of the Highlights of the Outlook Report.

The Bank will conduct monetary policy with the 2 percent target.

As for the conduct of monetary policy, the Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation, in response to developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions. It will consider the timing and pace of adjustment, while examining the likelihood of realizing the baseline scenario of the outlook for economic activity and prices and the risks to the outlook.

Policy Board Members' Forecasts

  • Infographic image of a line graph showing the year-on-year rate of change in real GDP. Actual figures for the year-on-year rate of change in real GDP are -0.1% for fiscal 2023, +0.5% for fiscal 2024. Forecasts are +1.0% for fiscal 2025, +0.5% for fiscal 2026, +0.7% for fiscal 2027, and +0.8% for fiscal 2028.
  • Infographic image of a line graph showing the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index for all items less fresh food. Actual figures for the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI are +2.8% for fiscal 2023, +2.7% for fiscal 2024, and +2.7% for fiscal 2025. Forecasts are +2.8% for fiscal 2026, +2.3% for fiscal 2027, and +2.0% for fiscal 2028.

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices

For further details, please see "The Bank's View" and the full text of the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report) on the following pages: