Output Gap, Potential Growth Rate,
and Labor Market Indicators
The "output gap" -- which serves as an indicator for aggregate supply and demand balance -- and the "potential growth rate" -- which reflects the growth capacity of Japan's economy from a longer-term perspective -- are crucial for judging economic and price conditions. The Bank of Japan's Research and Statistics Department prepares these data on a regular basis and releases the estimation results on the Bank's website on a quarterly basis.
In order to assess economic and price developments, it remains critical to identify the aggregate supply and demand balance by using the estimates of the output gap. In recent years, however, developments in labor input and labor market tightness appear to exert increasingly significant influence on economic activity in labor-intensive sectors and price trends amid intensifying labor supply constraints.
In light of these developments, the Bank of Japan's Research and Statistics Department has begun quarterly publication of labor market indicators. These are considered to be suitable for complementary monitoring of the output gap, given their relevance to forecasting wages and prices. These indicators are published together with updates on the output gap and potential growth rate.
These estimates are, in principle, released on the third business day in January, April, July, and October.
For further details on these research data, see the following paper: Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan, "Updates on the Output Gap and Potential Growth Rate, and Monitoring Labor Market Indicators," Bank of Japan Research Paper, March 2026. (Currently only available in Japanese; an English version is under preparation.)
Please keep in mind that the output gap and potential growth rate need to be viewed with some latitude as these estimates may differ considerably depending on the estimation methods and also as they are subject to estimation errors.
Research Data
| Date | Title | Data |
|---|---|---|
| Apr. 3, 2026 | Data | [XLSX 53KB] |
| Apr. 3, 2026 | Chart | [PDF 73KB] |
Explanation and Related Materials
Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan, "Updates on the Output Gap and Potential Growth Rate, and Monitoring Labor Market Indicators," Bank of Japan Research Paper, March 2026. (Currently only available in Japanese; an English version is under preparation.)
Notices of Changes
- Mar. 26, 2026
- Updates on the Output Gap and Potential Growth Rate, and Monitoring Labor Market Indicators
Notice
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Inquiries
Economic Assessment and Projection Group,
Economic Research Division, Research and Statistics Department
Tel : +81-3-3279-1111