Tankan Outline (December 2018)
December 14, 2018
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Manu- facturing |
Nonmanu- facturing |
Total | (Response rate) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 4,059 | 5,801 | 9,860 | ( 99.6%) |
of which Large Enterprises | 1,009 | 915 | 1,924 | ( 99.8%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,052 | 1,708 | 2,760 | ( 99.4%) |
Small Enterprises | 1,998 | 3,178 | 5,176 | ( 99.6%) |
[Responding Period: November 13 to December 13]
June 2018 Survey | Sept. 2018 Survey | Dec. 2018 Survey | |
---|---|---|---|
FY2017 | 110.79 | - | - |
1H | 110.97 | - | - |
2H | 110.63 | - | - |
FY2018 | 107.26 | 107.40 | 109.41 |
1H | 107.27 | 107.52 | 109.56 |
2H | 107.26 | 107.29 | 109.26 |
Sept. 2018 | Dec. 2018 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 19) | ||||
19 | 19 | 0 | 15 | -4 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 22) | ||||
22 | 24 | +2 | 20 | -4 | |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 13) | ||||
15 | 17 | +2 | 11 | -6 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 15) | ||||
18 | 17 | -1 | 13 | -4 | |
[Small Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 11) | ||||
14 | 14 | 0 | 8 | -6 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 5) | ||||
10 | 11 | +1 | 5 | -6 | |
[All Enterprises] | |||||
All industries | ( 12) | ||||
15 | 16 | +1 | 10 | -6 |
(Notes)
- FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Sept. 2018 | Dec. 2018 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 1 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -9 | -11 | -2 | -14 | -3 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | -3 |
Small Enterprises | -4 | -6 | -2 | -8 | -2 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 7 | 6 | -1 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 10 | 10 | 0 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 3 | 2 | -1 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 7 | 9 | +2 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 7 | 6 | -1 | 1 | -5 |
Small Enterprises | 5 | 4 | -1 | 6 | +2 |
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 27 | 24 | -3 | 20 | -4 |
Small Enterprises | 41 | 41 | 0 | 42 | +1 |
FY2017 | Revision rate |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.6 | - | 3.4 | +0.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.9 | - | 3.2 | +1.2 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.3 | - | 4.1 | +0.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.8 | - | 3.0 | +0.2 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.2 | - | 1.7 | +0.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.4 | - | 1.0 | +0.5 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 4.4 | - | 2.7 | +0.7 |
(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.
FY2017 | Revision rate |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 20.8 | - | 0.1 | +7.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | 14.3 | - | -1.7 | +0.7 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 1.6 | - | 6.3 | +3.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.7 | - | -0.2 | +0.2 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.0 | - | 0.6 | -0.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.5 | - | -4.4 | +0.6 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 12.0 | - | -0.8 | +2.9 |
FY2017 | Changes | FY2018 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.52 | - | 8.25 | +0.53 |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.67 | - | 6.35 | -0.03 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.23 | - | 5.34 | +0.17 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.85 | - | 3.73 | 0.00 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.71 | - | 4.66 | -0.02 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.55 | - | 3.36 | 0.00 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 5.83 | - | 5.63 | +0.13 |
FY2017 | Revision rate |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.3 | - | 15.6 | -1.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.9 | - | 13.5 | +2.3 |
All industries | 4.1 | - | 14.3 | +0.8 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 12.7 | - | 15.0 | -1.9 |
Nonmanufacturing | 11.6 | - | 8.6 | +4.7 |
All industries | 12.0 | - | 11.1 | +1.9 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 0.6 | - | 15.2 | +3.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | -1.0 | - | -12.8 | +6.4 |
All industries | -0.5 | - | -3.7 | +5.2 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.3 | - | 15.4 | -0.9 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.4 | - | 7.5 | +3.3 |
All industries | 4.4 | - | 10.4 | +1.7 |
- Excludes software and R&D investment.
FY2017 | Revision rate |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.8 | - | 8.9 | -0.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.7 | - | 12.1 | +0.9 |
All industries | 4.6 | - | 10.4 | +0.1 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.3 | - | 14.7 | -2.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | 9.9 | - | 13.5 | +2.3 |
All industries | 9.7 | - | 14.0 | +0.2 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.0 | - | 15.9 | +2.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | -2.4 | - | -8.1 | +2.2 |
All industries | -0.1 | - | 0.8 | +2.2 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.4 | - | 10.3 | -0.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.8 | - | 8.8 | +1.3 |
All industries | 4.6 | - | 9.6 | +0.3 |
Sept. 2018 | Dec. 2018 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -5 | -5 | 0 | -4 | +1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -6 | -4 | +2 | -5 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -8 | -7 | +1 | -9 | -2 |
All Enterprises | -6 | -6 | 0 | -6 | 0 |
Sept. 2018 | Dec. 2018 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -23 | -23 | 0 | -24 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -33 | -34 | -1 | -37 | -3 |
Small Enterprises | -37 | -39 | -2 | -43 | -4 |
All Enterprises | -33 | -35 | -2 | -38 | -3 |
Sept. 2018 | Dec. 2018 | Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 23 | 23 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 24 | 23 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 12 | 12 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 18 | 17 | -1 |
Sept. 2018 | Dec. 2018 | Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 26 | 25 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 28 | 27 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 21 | 21 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 24 | 24 | 0 |
Sept. 2018 | Dec. 2018 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 1 | 2 | +1 | 9 | +7 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | +8 |
Small Enterprises | -2 | -2 | 0 | 6 | +8 |
All Enterprises | -1 | -1 | 0 | 8 | +9 |
Sept. 2018 | Dec. 2018 | Change between Sept. and Dec. | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 39 | 34 | -5 |