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Revision of the Consumption Activity Index

June 5, 2020
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

The Research and Statistics Department (RSD) of the Bank of Japan has revised the Consumption Activity Index (CAI) as follows. Due to the revision, figures for the CAI have been retroactively revised.

(1) Changes to incorporate the revisions of the Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity (ITA) and the Current Survey of Commerce (CSC)

The CAI has been retroactively revised to incorporate the revisions of the ITA and the CSC implemented in April 2020. In reflecting the revised CSC, the RSD applied the linked coefficients in the CSC to the CAI, with the exception of "household electrical appliances," for which the RSD applied "level adjustment" in the CSC instead. As some source data series of the CAI were deleted or integrated with the April revision, the RSD replaced them by the alternative indicators similar to the original so as to link data in the CAI.

(2) Change of the source statistics for "tobacco"

In the CAI, monthly sales data on tobacco released by the Tobacco Institute of Japan has been the source statistics for "tobacco." Since the Tobacco Institute of Japan has discontinued the release of this data after the release of data for March 2020, the RSD has switched the source statistics for "tobacco" from April 2020 onward to the index of shipments of non-durable consumer goods for education and amusement in the Indices of Industrial Production. Specifically, the RSD uses the index by excluding items other than tobacco -- namely, plastic models, mechanical pencils, ballpoint pens, and marking pens.

(3) Changes in extrapolation method

In the CAI, since the release timing of its source statistics varies, some indexes are subject to extrapolation due to data unavailability. Previously, such index was extrapolated by using its average year-on-year rate of change for the previous three months. In order to capture economic fluctuations in a timely manner, the RSD has changed this method. In the new method, if data from industry statistics or released by major companies are available -- as is the case, for example, with "air" and "railway" -- these data are used in extrapolating indexes for the most recent month. With regard to indexes for which such data cannot be used, the RSD uses their year-on-year rates of change for the previous month.

(4) Update of seasonal adjustment

The CAI released today reflects the regular update in seasonal adjustment, which takes place every year. For the latest specifications for seasonal adjustment, see "Specifications for Seasonal Adjustment." [PDF 43KB]


Economic Assessment and Projection Group, Economic Research Division, Research and Statistics Department

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